The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after the February 2026 killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, and subsequent military consolidation under a junta of generals explain traders' near-certain view that collapse by September 30 is unlikely. Security forces suppressed major protest waves earlier in the year across all provinces despite high casualties and arrests, while the regime maintained cohesion without significant defections. Ongoing economic strain, including the rial's record lows and intensified U.S. sanctions pressure, has not yet triggered the scale of elite fractures or coordinated opposition needed for rapid regime change. Realistic shifts before the deadline remain limited to sudden internal military splits or an unforeseen nationwide uprising, both viewed as low-probability events given recent patterns of nationalist consolidation and crackdowns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
1% chance
$1,769,171 Vol.
$1,769,171 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
1% chance
$1,769,171 Vol.
$1,769,171 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after the February 2026 killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, and subsequent military consolidation under a junta of generals explain traders' near-certain view that collapse by September 30 is unlikely. Security forces suppressed major protest waves earlier in the year across all provinces despite high casualties and arrests, while the regime maintained cohesion without significant defections. Ongoing economic strain, including the rial's record lows and intensified U.S. sanctions pressure, has not yet triggered the scale of elite fractures or coordinated opposition needed for rapid regime change. Realistic shifts before the deadline remain limited to sudden internal military splits or an unforeseen nationwide uprising, both viewed as low-probability events given recent patterns of nationalist consolidation and crackdowns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$1,769,171End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after the February 2026 killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, and subsequent military consolidation under a junta of generals explain traders' near-certain view that collapse by September 30 is unlikely. Security forces suppressed major protest waves earlier in the year across all provinces despite high casualties and arrests, while the regime maintained cohesion without significant defections. Ongoing economic strain, including the rial's record lows and intensified U.S. sanctions pressure, has not yet triggered the scale of elite fractures or coordinated opposition needed for rapid regime change. Realistic shifts before the deadline remain limited to sudden internal military splits or an unforeseen nationwide uprising, both viewed as low-probability events given recent patterns of nationalist consolidation and crackdowns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,769,171End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after the February 2026 killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, and subsequent military consolidation under a junta of generals explain traders' near-certain view that collapse by September 30 is unlikely. Security forces suppressed major protest waves earlier in the year across all provinces despite high casualties and arrests, while the regime maintained cohesion without significant defections. Ongoing economic strain, including the rial's record lows and intensified U.S. sanctions pressure, has not yet triggered the scale of elite fractures or coordinated opposition needed for rapid regime change. Realistic shifts before the deadline remain limited to sudden internal military splits or an unforeseen nationwide uprising, both viewed as low-probability events given recent patterns of nationalist consolidation and crackdowns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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