**The US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, stands as the sole verified instance of such an operation this year, executed via a targeted military raid that extracted the sitting leader and his wife for prosecution on longstanding narco-terrorism charges.** With roughly four months remaining before the December 31 resolution deadline and no comparable actions underway, traders assign a 94.5% probability to “No.” Recent developments reinforce this positioning. Venezuela’s transition has stabilized under interim leadership with US engagement focused on sanctions relief, oil flows, and diplomatic normalization rather than further apprehensions. Broader US foreign policy priorities—managing Iran-related strikes and sanctions, addressing ICC tensions, and navigating domestic midterm dynamics—have not generated new intelligence, indictments, or operational signals targeting other heads of state. Historical precedents remain rare, and any future operation would require exceptional alignment of legal justification, military feasibility, and political will amid heightened scrutiny over sovereignty and head-of-state immunity. Absent fresh catalysts such as escalated indictments or regime-change triggers against additional qualifying leaders, the market reflects broad consensus that the Maduro episode is unlikely to repeat before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the US capture another world leader in 2026?
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
6% chance
$81,054 Vol.
$81,054 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
6% chance
$81,054 Vol.
$81,054 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**The US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, stands as the sole verified instance of such an operation this year, executed via a targeted military raid that extracted the sitting leader and his wife for prosecution on longstanding narco-terrorism charges.** With roughly four months remaining before the December 31 resolution deadline and no comparable actions underway, traders assign a 94.5% probability to “No.”
Recent developments reinforce this positioning. Venezuela’s transition has stabilized under interim leadership with US engagement focused on sanctions relief, oil flows, and diplomatic normalization rather than further apprehensions. Broader US foreign policy priorities—managing Iran-related strikes and sanctions, addressing ICC tensions, and navigating domestic midterm dynamics—have not generated new intelligence, indictments, or operational signals targeting other heads of state. Historical precedents remain rare, and any future operation would require exceptional alignment of legal justification, military feasibility, and political will amid heightened scrutiny over sovereignty and head-of-state immunity.
Absent fresh catalysts such as escalated indictments or regime-change triggers against additional qualifying leaders, the market reflects broad consensus that the Maduro episode is unlikely to repeat before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volume
$81,054End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**The US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, stands as the sole verified instance of such an operation this year, executed via a targeted military raid that extracted the sitting leader and his wife for prosecution on longstanding narco-terrorism charges.** With roughly four months remaining before the December 31 resolution deadline and no comparable actions underway, traders assign a 94.5% probability to “No.”
Recent developments reinforce this positioning. Venezuela’s transition has stabilized under interim leadership with US engagement focused on sanctions relief, oil flows, and diplomatic normalization rather than further apprehensions. Broader US foreign policy priorities—managing Iran-related strikes and sanctions, addressing ICC tensions, and navigating domestic midterm dynamics—have not generated new intelligence, indictments, or operational signals targeting other heads of state. Historical precedents remain rare, and any future operation would require exceptional alignment of legal justification, military feasibility, and political will amid heightened scrutiny over sovereignty and head-of-state immunity.
Absent fresh catalysts such as escalated indictments or regime-change triggers against additional qualifying leaders, the market reflects broad consensus that the Maduro episode is unlikely to repeat before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$81,054End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, stands as the sole verified instance of such an operation this year, executed via a targeted military raid that extracted the sitting leader and his wife for prosecution on longstanding narco-terrorism charges.** With roughly four months remaining before the December 31 resolution deadline and no comparable actions underway, traders assign a 94.5% probability to “No.” Recent developments reinforce this positioning. Venezuela’s transition has stabilized under interim leadership with US engagement focused on sanctions relief, oil flows, and diplomatic normalization rather than further apprehensions. Broader US foreign policy priorities—managing Iran-related strikes and sanctions, addressing ICC tensions, and navigating domestic midterm dynamics—have not generated new intelligence, indictments, or operational signals targeting other heads of state. Historical precedents remain rare, and any future operation would require exceptional alignment of legal justification, military feasibility, and political will amid heightened scrutiny over sovereignty and head-of-state immunity. Absent fresh catalysts such as escalated indictments or regime-change triggers against additional qualifying leaders, the market reflects broad consensus that the Maduro episode is unlikely to repeat before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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