The near-certain trader consensus against a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026 stems from stable U.S.-Denmark relations, including existing defense agreements and joint Arctic security cooperation that have shown no signs of rupture. Denmark maintains NATO membership, and Greenland hosts longstanding U.S. military facilities under bilateral accords rather than adversarial conditions. No official statements, legislative actions, or foreign policy shifts from either government point toward military escalation or territorial claims. Realistic scenarios that could still influence assessments include abrupt changes in great-power competition, such as major realignments in Arctic strategy or Danish withdrawal from alliance commitments, though these remain outside current evidence and would require significant diplomatic breakdowns to register in market pricing.