**Trader consensus strongly favors "No" at 91.5% because U.S. actions and statements have remained limited to tariff leverage, trade negotiations, and energy infrastructure talks rather than any formal pursuit of territorial sovereignty over Alberta.** President Trump has repeatedly referenced Canada as a potential "51st state" in the context of CUSMA renegotiation and tariff disputes, including recent pauses on 50% tariffs and comments on reviving the Keystone XL pipeline from Alberta. These moves center on economic pressure—such as exemptions for Canadian oil and gas exports and proposals for new cross-border pipelines—without advancing annexation proposals or diplomatic initiatives targeting provincial territory. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has prioritized bilateral diplomacy and opposed using energy exports as retaliation, while U.S. officials have made only passing references to Alberta separatism amid broader Canada-wide trade friction. Ongoing negotiations through August 2026 continue without territorial conditions, and the market's resolution criteria require a public announcement or credible consensus of direct acquisition efforts by year-end. No such steps have materialized, keeping implied probability heavily weighted toward "No."
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated9% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
9% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the US federal government publicly announces that Trump or the United States is seeking to take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sovereignty or control refers to any attempt to bring part of the territory of Alberta under the legal governance and jurisdiction of the United States, including as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, or through an arrangement in which the US otherwise exercises governance and jurisdiction in the territory. Commercial agreements, trade deals, or other actions that do not seek formal US governance or jurisdiction over the territory will not count.
A qualifying announcement must directly state either ongoing direct efforts, or a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over a portion of the territory of Alberta (e.g. “We are going to take Alberta” or “We are trying to take Alberta” would count). Statements that express a desire to control Alberta, but do not express a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over Albertan territory (e.g. “We want Alberta,” or “We’re looking into purchasing Alberta”) will not count.
A consensus of credible reporting that the United States is undertaking ongoing direct efforts or negotiations to acquire, purchase, annex, or otherwise take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution sources will be official information from Donald Trump and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus strongly favors "No" at 91.5% because U.S. actions and statements have remained limited to tariff leverage, trade negotiations, and energy infrastructure talks rather than any formal pursuit of territorial sovereignty over Alberta.**
President Trump has repeatedly referenced Canada as a potential "51st state" in the context of CUSMA renegotiation and tariff disputes, including recent pauses on 50% tariffs and comments on reviving the Keystone XL pipeline from Alberta. These moves center on economic pressure—such as exemptions for Canadian oil and gas exports and proposals for new cross-border pipelines—without advancing annexation proposals or diplomatic initiatives targeting provincial territory. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has prioritized bilateral diplomacy and opposed using energy exports as retaliation, while U.S. officials have made only passing references to Alberta separatism amid broader Canada-wide trade friction.
Ongoing negotiations through August 2026 continue without territorial conditions, and the market's resolution criteria require a public announcement or credible consensus of direct acquisition efforts by year-end. No such steps have materialized, keeping implied probability heavily weighted toward "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the US federal government publicly announces that Trump or the United States is seeking to take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sovereignty or control refers to any attempt to bring part of the territory of Alberta under the legal governance and jurisdiction of the United States, including as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, or through an arrangement in which the US otherwise exercises governance and jurisdiction in the territory. Commercial agreements, trade deals, or other actions that do not seek formal US governance or jurisdiction over the territory will not count.
A qualifying announcement must directly state either ongoing direct efforts, or a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over a portion of the territory of Alberta (e.g. “We are going to take Alberta” or “We are trying to take Alberta” would count). Statements that express a desire to control Alberta, but do not express a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over Albertan territory (e.g. “We want Alberta,” or “We’re looking into purchasing Alberta”) will not count.
A consensus of credible reporting that the United States is undertaking ongoing direct efforts or negotiations to acquire, purchase, annex, or otherwise take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution sources will be official information from Donald Trump and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sovereignty or control refers to any attempt to bring part of the territory of Alberta under the legal governance and jurisdiction of the United States, including as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, or through an arrangement in which the US otherwise exercises governance and jurisdiction in the territory. Commercial agreements, trade deals, or other actions that do not seek formal US governance or jurisdiction over the territory will not count.
A qualifying announcement must directly state either ongoing direct efforts, or a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over a portion of the territory of Alberta (e.g. “We are going to take Alberta” or “We are trying to take Alberta” would count). Statements that express a desire to control Alberta, but do not express a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over Albertan territory (e.g. “We want Alberta,” or “We’re looking into purchasing Alberta”) will not count.
A consensus of credible reporting that the United States is undertaking ongoing direct efforts or negotiations to acquire, purchase, annex, or otherwise take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution sources will be official information from Donald Trump and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 5:59 PM ET
Volume
$3,857End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 5:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the US federal government publicly announces that Trump or the United States is seeking to take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sovereignty or control refers to any attempt to bring part of the territory of Alberta under the legal governance and jurisdiction of the United States, including as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, or through an arrangement in which the US otherwise exercises governance and jurisdiction in the territory. Commercial agreements, trade deals, or other actions that do not seek formal US governance or jurisdiction over the territory will not count.
A qualifying announcement must directly state either ongoing direct efforts, or a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over a portion of the territory of Alberta (e.g. “We are going to take Alberta” or “We are trying to take Alberta” would count). Statements that express a desire to control Alberta, but do not express a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over Albertan territory (e.g. “We want Alberta,” or “We’re looking into purchasing Alberta”) will not count.
A consensus of credible reporting that the United States is undertaking ongoing direct efforts or negotiations to acquire, purchase, annex, or otherwise take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution sources will be official information from Donald Trump and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus strongly favors "No" at 91.5% because U.S. actions and statements have remained limited to tariff leverage, trade negotiations, and energy infrastructure talks rather than any formal pursuit of territorial sovereignty over Alberta.**
President Trump has repeatedly referenced Canada as a potential "51st state" in the context of CUSMA renegotiation and tariff disputes, including recent pauses on 50% tariffs and comments on reviving the Keystone XL pipeline from Alberta. These moves center on economic pressure—such as exemptions for Canadian oil and gas exports and proposals for new cross-border pipelines—without advancing annexation proposals or diplomatic initiatives targeting provincial territory. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has prioritized bilateral diplomacy and opposed using energy exports as retaliation, while U.S. officials have made only passing references to Alberta separatism amid broader Canada-wide trade friction.
Ongoing negotiations through August 2026 continue without territorial conditions, and the market's resolution criteria require a public announcement or credible consensus of direct acquisition efforts by year-end. No such steps have materialized, keeping implied probability heavily weighted toward "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the US federal government publicly announces that Trump or the United States is seeking to take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sovereignty or control refers to any attempt to bring part of the territory of Alberta under the legal governance and jurisdiction of the United States, including as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, or through an arrangement in which the US otherwise exercises governance and jurisdiction in the territory. Commercial agreements, trade deals, or other actions that do not seek formal US governance or jurisdiction over the territory will not count.
A qualifying announcement must directly state either ongoing direct efforts, or a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over a portion of the territory of Alberta (e.g. “We are going to take Alberta” or “We are trying to take Alberta” would count). Statements that express a desire to control Alberta, but do not express a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over Albertan territory (e.g. “We want Alberta,” or “We’re looking into purchasing Alberta”) will not count.
A consensus of credible reporting that the United States is undertaking ongoing direct efforts or negotiations to acquire, purchase, annex, or otherwise take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution sources will be official information from Donald Trump and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sovereignty or control refers to any attempt to bring part of the territory of Alberta under the legal governance and jurisdiction of the United States, including as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, or through an arrangement in which the US otherwise exercises governance and jurisdiction in the territory. Commercial agreements, trade deals, or other actions that do not seek formal US governance or jurisdiction over the territory will not count.
A qualifying announcement must directly state either ongoing direct efforts, or a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over a portion of the territory of Alberta (e.g. “We are going to take Alberta” or “We are trying to take Alberta” would count). Statements that express a desire to control Alberta, but do not express a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over Albertan territory (e.g. “We want Alberta,” or “We’re looking into purchasing Alberta”) will not count.
A consensus of credible reporting that the United States is undertaking ongoing direct efforts or negotiations to acquire, purchase, annex, or otherwise take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution sources will be official information from Donald Trump and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,857End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 5:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus strongly favors "No" at 91.5% because U.S. actions and statements have remained limited to tariff leverage, trade negotiations, and energy infrastructure talks rather than any formal pursuit of territorial sovereignty over Alberta.** President Trump has repeatedly referenced Canada as a potential "51st state" in the context of CUSMA renegotiation and tariff disputes, including recent pauses on 50% tariffs and comments on reviving the Keystone XL pipeline from Alberta. These moves center on economic pressure—such as exemptions for Canadian oil and gas exports and proposals for new cross-border pipelines—without advancing annexation proposals or diplomatic initiatives targeting provincial territory. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has prioritized bilateral diplomacy and opposed using energy exports as retaliation, while U.S. officials have made only passing references to Alberta separatism amid broader Canada-wide trade friction. Ongoing negotiations through August 2026 continue without territorial conditions, and the market's resolution criteria require a public announcement or credible consensus of direct acquisition efforts by year-end. No such steps have materialized, keeping implied probability heavily weighted toward "No."
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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