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icon for AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
Tech·AI

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

icon for AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
Tech·AI

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

89% chance
Polymarket

$119,773 Vol.

89% chance
Polymarket

$119,773 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Rapid progress by OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series has pushed the leading FrontierMath v2 Tiers 1-3 score to 89% as of late August 2026, placing the 90% threshold within striking distance before year-end.** The benchmark’s June 2026 v2 update corrected errors in roughly 42% of problems, lifting scores across the board while preserving relative rankings and revealing faster underlying capability gains than earlier v1 numbers suggested. OpenAI models have dominated recent leaderboards, with GPT-5.6 Sol, Terra, and Luna variants occupying the top spots on both Tiers 1-3 and the harder Tier 4 set. Continued scaling of reasoning effort, iterative Python tooling, and expected late-2026 model iterations from OpenAI and competitors support trader expectations that the final percentage point will be cleared in the remaining months of 2026. The 89% market-implied probability for Yes aggregates this demonstrated trajectory and near-term release cadence.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$119,773
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Rapid progress by OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series has pushed the leading FrontierMath v2 Tiers 1-3 score to 89% as of late August 2026, placing the 90% threshold within striking distance before year-end.** The benchmark’s June 2026 v2 update corrected errors in roughly 42% of problems, lifting scores across the board while preserving relative rankings and revealing faster underlying capability gains than earlier v1 numbers suggested. OpenAI models have dominated recent leaderboards, with GPT-5.6 Sol, Terra, and Luna variants occupying the top spots on both Tiers 1-3 and the harder Tier 4 set. Continued scaling of reasoning effort, iterative Python tooling, and expected late-2026 model iterations from OpenAI and competitors support trader expectations that the final percentage point will be cleared in the remaining months of 2026. The 89% market-implied probability for Yes aggregates this demonstrated trajectory and near-term release cadence.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$119,773
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 89% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 89¢, the market collectively assigns a 89% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?" has generated $119.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?" is 89% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 89% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.