The Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision, paired with its updated Monetary Policy Report, shows 88.9% implied odds of no change at the current 2.25% overnight rate, driven by the central bank’s repeated holds since mid-2026 and its willingness to look through transitory energy-driven inflation. July CPI reached 3.0% year-over-year, boosted by gasoline prices up 25.7%, yet core measures (median and trim) stayed near the 2% target, while modest second-quarter GDP improvement and a softening labor market reinforced a patient stance. Economists’ August polls project rates unchanged through year-end amid U.S. trade uncertainty and geopolitical risks, with markets pricing only modest odds of a 25-basis-point hike and negligible probabilities for cuts. The BoC’s data-dependent, nimble approach keeps the policy rate appropriate ahead of clearer signals on inflation breadth and growth sustainability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo Change 89.0%
25 bps increase 8.5%
25 bps decrease 3.3%
50+ bps increase <1%
$46,366 Vol.
$46,366 Vol.
Oct 27, 2026
50+ bps increase
<1%
25 bps increase
9%
No Change
89%
25 bps decrease
3%
50+ bps decrease
<1%
No Change 89.0%
25 bps increase 8.5%
25 bps decrease 3.3%
50+ bps increase <1%
$46,366 Vol.
$46,366 Vol.
Oct 27, 2026
50+ bps increase
$3,694 Vol.
<1%
25 bps increase
$10,096 Vol.
9%
No Change
$21,278 Vol.
89%
25 bps decrease
$7,449 Vol.
3%
50+ bps decrease
$3,849 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.The Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision, paired with its updated Monetary Policy Report, shows 88.9% implied odds of no change at the current 2.25% overnight rate, driven by the central bank’s repeated holds since mid-2026 and its willingness to look through transitory energy-driven inflation. July CPI reached 3.0% year-over-year, boosted by gasoline prices up 25.7%, yet core measures (median and trim) stayed near the 2% target, while modest second-quarter GDP improvement and a softening labor market reinforced a patient stance. Economists’ August polls project rates unchanged through year-end amid U.S. trade uncertainty and geopolitical risks, with markets pricing only modest odds of a 25-basis-point hike and negligible probabilities for cuts. The BoC’s data-dependent, nimble approach keeps the policy rate appropriate ahead of clearer signals on inflation breadth and growth sustainability.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ET
Volume
$46,366End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.The Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision, paired with its updated Monetary Policy Report, shows 88.9% implied odds of no change at the current 2.25% overnight rate, driven by the central bank’s repeated holds since mid-2026 and its willingness to look through transitory energy-driven inflation. July CPI reached 3.0% year-over-year, boosted by gasoline prices up 25.7%, yet core measures (median and trim) stayed near the 2% target, while modest second-quarter GDP improvement and a softening labor market reinforced a patient stance. Economists’ August polls project rates unchanged through year-end amid U.S. trade uncertainty and geopolitical risks, with markets pricing only modest odds of a 25-basis-point hike and negligible probabilities for cuts. The BoC’s data-dependent, nimble approach keeps the policy rate appropriate ahead of clearer signals on inflation breadth and growth sustainability.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Volume
$46,366End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 9:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision, paired with its updated Monetary Policy Report, shows 88.9% implied odds of no change at the current 2.25% overnight rate, driven by the central bank’s repeated holds since mid-2026 and its willingness to look through transitory energy-driven inflation. July CPI reached 3.0% year-over-year, boosted by gasoline prices up 25.7%, yet core measures (median and trim) stayed near the 2% target, while modest second-quarter GDP improvement and a softening labor market reinforced a patient stance. Economists’ August polls project rates unchanged through year-end amid U.S. trade uncertainty and geopolitical risks, with markets pricing only modest odds of a 25-basis-point hike and negligible probabilities for cuts. The BoC’s data-dependent, nimble approach keeps the policy rate appropriate ahead of clearer signals on inflation breadth and growth sustainability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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