Anthropic's July 24 release of Claude Opus 5 has driven the strong market positioning for its high and max variants, as the model delivers near-Fable 5 frontier performance on coding and knowledge benchmarks like Frontier-Bench and ARC-AGI at half the token cost while becoming the default for Claude Max and Pro users. Traders see these configurations as leading because Opus 5 more than doubles predecessor scores on agentic tasks and outperforms competitors in efficiency and alignment, with no major new model launches from Anthropic or rivals in the subsequent month to shift consensus. The low odds on the older Opus 4.6 variant reflect its displacement by the fresher 5-series upgrades, while the sizable "Other" share accounts for potential surprises from OpenAI or Google models before the August 31 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updatedclaude-opus-5-high 43.1%
claude-opus-5-max 32%
Other 23.9%
claude-opus-4-6-high 2.3%
$40,279 Vol.
$40,279 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
claude-opus-5-high
43%
claude-opus-5-max
32%
Other
24%
claude-opus-4-6-high
2%
claude-opus-5-high 43.1%
claude-opus-5-max 32%
Other 23.9%
claude-opus-4-6-high 2.3%
$40,279 Vol.
$40,279 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
claude-opus-5-high
$9,774 Vol.
43%
claude-opus-5-max
$14,554 Vol.
32%
Other
$7,475 Vol.
24%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$8,475 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's July 24 release of Claude Opus 5 has driven the strong market positioning for its high and max variants, as the model delivers near-Fable 5 frontier performance on coding and knowledge benchmarks like Frontier-Bench and ARC-AGI at half the token cost while becoming the default for Claude Max and Pro users. Traders see these configurations as leading because Opus 5 more than doubles predecessor scores on agentic tasks and outperforms competitors in efficiency and alignment, with no major new model launches from Anthropic or rivals in the subsequent month to shift consensus. The low odds on the older Opus 4.6 variant reflect its displacement by the fresher 5-series upgrades, while the sizable "Other" share accounts for potential surprises from OpenAI or Google models before the August 31 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$40,279End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's July 24 release of Claude Opus 5 has driven the strong market positioning for its high and max variants, as the model delivers near-Fable 5 frontier performance on coding and knowledge benchmarks like Frontier-Bench and ARC-AGI at half the token cost while becoming the default for Claude Max and Pro users. Traders see these configurations as leading because Opus 5 more than doubles predecessor scores on agentic tasks and outperforms competitors in efficiency and alignment, with no major new model launches from Anthropic or rivals in the subsequent month to shift consensus. The low odds on the older Opus 4.6 variant reflect its displacement by the fresher 5-series upgrades, while the sizable "Other" share accounts for potential surprises from OpenAI or Google models before the August 31 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$40,279End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's July 24 release of Claude Opus 5 has driven the strong market positioning for its high and max variants, as the model delivers near-Fable 5 frontier performance on coding and knowledge benchmarks like Frontier-Bench and ARC-AGI at half the token cost while becoming the default for Claude Max and Pro users. Traders see these configurations as leading because Opus 5 more than doubles predecessor scores on agentic tasks and outperforms competitors in efficiency and alignment, with no major new model launches from Anthropic or rivals in the subsequent month to shift consensus. The low odds on the older Opus 4.6 variant reflect its displacement by the fresher 5-series upgrades, while the sizable "Other" share accounts for potential surprises from OpenAI or Google models before the August 31 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions