**Mike Derry holds an 81.5% implied probability as the winner of the September 14, 2026, Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election, reflecting the United Conservative Party’s strong position in the south Calgary riding vacated by former cabinet minister Rebecca Schulz.** Derry secured the UCP nomination in late June after defeating city councillor Dan McLean in a member vote (286–221), earning endorsements from Premier Danielle Smith and party officials. His background in the oil and gas sector, HR consulting, and local community work aligns with core UCP priorities on affordability, energy, and fiscal policy. The NDP’s Kyle Campbell, nominated around the same time, trails at 15.5% amid the party’s weaker historical performance in the riding. Minor candidates including Progressive Tory Kyle Joseph and Liberal leader John Roggeveen register negligible support, consistent with Alberta’s two-party dominance in recent provincial contests. Nominations close August 27, with advance voting set for September 8–12; traders appear to price in limited volatility given the UCP’s organizational and incumbency advantages in this constituency.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMike Derry 81%
Kyle Campbell 15%
Kyle Joseph <1%
John Roggeveen <1%
$11,076 Vol.
$11,076 Vol.
Mike Derry
81%
Kyle Campbell
15%
Kyle Joseph
1%
John Roggeveen
1%
Mike Derry 81%
Kyle Campbell 15%
Kyle Joseph <1%
John Roggeveen <1%
$11,076 Vol.
$11,076 Vol.
Mike Derry
81%
Kyle Campbell
15%
Kyle Joseph
1%
John Roggeveen
1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 6:53 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Mike Derry holds an 81.5% implied probability as the winner of the September 14, 2026, Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election, reflecting the United Conservative Party’s strong position in the south Calgary riding vacated by former cabinet minister Rebecca Schulz.** Derry secured the UCP nomination in late June after defeating city councillor Dan McLean in a member vote (286–221), earning endorsements from Premier Danielle Smith and party officials. His background in the oil and gas sector, HR consulting, and local community work aligns with core UCP priorities on affordability, energy, and fiscal policy. The NDP’s Kyle Campbell, nominated around the same time, trails at 15.5% amid the party’s weaker historical performance in the riding. Minor candidates including Progressive Tory Kyle Joseph and Liberal leader John Roggeveen register negligible support, consistent with Alberta’s two-party dominance in recent provincial contests. Nominations close August 27, with advance voting set for September 8–12; traders appear to price in limited volatility given the UCP’s organizational and incumbency advantages in this constituency.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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