USDA APHIS surveillance has confirmed over 45 New World screwworm detections since the first U.S. case in a Zavala County, Texas calf on June 3, 2026, with the sole non-Texas detection occurring in a Lea County, New Mexico dog rather than livestock. The parasite's northward advance from Mexico, where regional resurgence began in late 2024, drives ongoing risk through fly dispersal and potential animal movement, though intensified sterile insect releases, 20-km infested zones, quarantines across 23 Texas counties, and enhanced trapping have limited spread. As of late August 2026, active cases remain few, with livestock detections still confined to Texas amid phased southern port reopenings starting August 24. Traders monitor USDA dashboards and model updates for any livestock confirmation outside Texas, as expanded surveillance in New Mexico and Arizona could shift probabilities with new trap or case data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedConfirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...
NEW
August 30
20%
October 31
72%
December 31
68%
$4,734 Vol.
August 30
$1,544 Vol.
20%
October 31
$521 Vol.
72%
December 31
$534 Vol.
68%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.USDA APHIS surveillance has confirmed over 45 New World screwworm detections since the first U.S. case in a Zavala County, Texas calf on June 3, 2026, with the sole non-Texas detection occurring in a Lea County, New Mexico dog rather than livestock. The parasite's northward advance from Mexico, where regional resurgence began in late 2024, drives ongoing risk through fly dispersal and potential animal movement, though intensified sterile insect releases, 20-km infested zones, quarantines across 23 Texas counties, and enhanced trapping have limited spread. As of late August 2026, active cases remain few, with livestock detections still confined to Texas amid phased southern port reopenings starting August 24. Traders monitor USDA dashboards and model updates for any livestock confirmation outside Texas, as expanded surveillance in New Mexico and Arizona could shift probabilities with new trap or case data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 10:17 PM ET
Volume
$4,734Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.USDA APHIS surveillance has confirmed over 45 New World screwworm detections since the first U.S. case in a Zavala County, Texas calf on June 3, 2026, with the sole non-Texas detection occurring in a Lea County, New Mexico dog rather than livestock. The parasite's northward advance from Mexico, where regional resurgence began in late 2024, drives ongoing risk through fly dispersal and potential animal movement, though intensified sterile insect releases, 20-km infested zones, quarantines across 23 Texas counties, and enhanced trapping have limited spread. As of late August 2026, active cases remain few, with livestock detections still confined to Texas amid phased southern port reopenings starting August 24. Traders monitor USDA dashboards and model updates for any livestock confirmation outside Texas, as expanded surveillance in New Mexico and Arizona could shift probabilities with new trap or case data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$4,734Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...USDA APHIS surveillance has confirmed over 45 New World screwworm detections since the first U.S. case in a Zavala County, Texas calf on June 3, 2026, with the sole non-Texas detection occurring in a Lea County, New Mexico dog rather than livestock. The parasite's northward advance from Mexico, where regional resurgence began in late 2024, drives ongoing risk through fly dispersal and potential animal movement, though intensified sterile insect releases, 20-km infested zones, quarantines across 23 Texas counties, and enhanced trapping have limited spread. As of late August 2026, active cases remain few, with livestock detections still confined to Texas amid phased southern port reopenings starting August 24. Traders monitor USDA dashboards and model updates for any livestock confirmation outside Texas, as expanded surveillance in New Mexico and Arizona could shift probabilities with new trap or case data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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