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icon for Does a card sell for more than Logan’s record $16,492,000 by the end of 2026?

Does a card sell for more than Logan’s record $16,492,000 by the end of 2026?

icon for Does a card sell for more than Logan’s record $16,492,000 by the end of 2026?

Does a card sell for more than Logan’s record $16,492,000 by the end of 2026?

9% chance
Polymarket
NEW
9% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single trading card sells for more than $16,492,000 USD in a public auction completed on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying sale is the sale of a single trading card, including but not limited to sports cards, Pokémon and other trading card game cards, and non-sport trading cards at a public auction conducted by Goldin or Heritage Auctions, for a total price strictly greater than $16,492,000 USD. The total price including buyer's premium and fees counts, consistent with the $16,492,000 benchmark set by the sale of Logan Paul's Pikachu Illustrator card at Goldin in February 2026. Private sales, fixed-price sales, and sales through any other venue or auction house do not count. Only completed auction sales count. Listings, asking prices, unmet reserves, withdrawn lots, and unverified sales do not count. Sales of multi-card lots, sealed products, or bundles do not count; the qualifying price must be attributable to a single card (associated accessories or memorabilia included with the card, as in the benchmark sale, do not disqualify it). If a qualifying sale is voided, rescinded, or determined to be fraudulent or non-bona fide (including non-payment by the winning bidder) prior to resolution, it will not count. Sales denominated in other currencies will be converted to USD at the exchange rate on the date of sale. If at least one qualifying sale occurs within the window, this market will resolve to "Yes" as soon as the sale is confirmed by the resolution sources. If no qualifying sale occurs by the deadline, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements and auction results from Goldin (https://goldin.co) and Heritage Auctions (https://www.ha.com). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The record $16.492 million sale of Logan Paul's PSA 10 Pikachu Illustrator Pokémon card in February 2026 established an exceptionally high benchmark driven by its extreme rarity—one of the few known copies and the sole Gem Mint 10—plus celebrity ownership, a high-profile Goldin auction with added elements like a diamond necklace, and strong collector demand for the "holy grail" of Pokémon cards. Since then, even standout 2026 sales such as an $11 million private Ohtani Logoman or multimillion-dollar LeBron and Mantle pieces have fallen well short, reflecting limited supply of comparable ultra-rare, perfect-grade items in the remaining months. Trader consensus at 91.5% for "No" reflects this scarcity and the infrequency of record-shattering transactions, though an unexpected 1/1 superstar pull or perfectly timed high-end auction could still test the barrier.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single trading card sells for more than $16,492,000 USD in a public auction completed on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying sale is the sale of a single trading card, including but not limited to sports cards, Pokémon and other trading card game cards, and non-sport trading cards at a public auction conducted by Goldin or Heritage Auctions, for a total price strictly greater than $16,492,000 USD. The total price including buyer's premium and fees counts, consistent with the $16,492,000 benchmark set by the sale of Logan Paul's Pikachu Illustrator card at Goldin in February 2026. Private sales, fixed-price sales, and sales through any other venue or auction house do not count.

Only completed auction sales count. Listings, asking prices, unmet reserves, withdrawn lots, and unverified sales do not count. Sales of multi-card lots, sealed products, or bundles do not count; the qualifying price must be attributable to a single card (associated accessories or memorabilia included with the card, as in the benchmark sale, do not disqualify it). If a qualifying sale is voided, rescinded, or determined to be fraudulent or non-bona fide (including non-payment by the winning bidder) prior to resolution, it will not count. Sales denominated in other currencies will be converted to USD at the exchange rate on the date of sale.

If at least one qualifying sale occurs within the window, this market will resolve to "Yes" as soon as the sale is confirmed by the resolution sources. If no qualifying sale occurs by the deadline, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements and auction results from Goldin (https://goldin.co) and Heritage Auctions (https://www.ha.com). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,766
Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single trading card sells for more than $16,492,000 USD in a public auction completed on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying sale is the sale of a single trading card, including but not limited to sports cards, Pokémon and other trading card game cards, and non-sport trading cards at a public auction conducted by Goldin or Heritage Auctions, for a total price strictly greater than $16,492,000 USD. The total price including buyer's premium and fees counts, consistent with the $16,492,000 benchmark set by the sale of Logan Paul's Pikachu Illustrator card at Goldin in February 2026. Private sales, fixed-price sales, and sales through any other venue or auction house do not count. Only completed auction sales count. Listings, asking prices, unmet reserves, withdrawn lots, and unverified sales do not count. Sales of multi-card lots, sealed products, or bundles do not count; the qualifying price must be attributable to a single card (associated accessories or memorabilia included with the card, as in the benchmark sale, do not disqualify it). If a qualifying sale is voided, rescinded, or determined to be fraudulent or non-bona fide (including non-payment by the winning bidder) prior to resolution, it will not count. Sales denominated in other currencies will be converted to USD at the exchange rate on the date of sale. If at least one qualifying sale occurs within the window, this market will resolve to "Yes" as soon as the sale is confirmed by the resolution sources. If no qualifying sale occurs by the deadline, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements and auction results from Goldin (https://goldin.co) and Heritage Auctions (https://www.ha.com). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single trading card sells for more than $16,492,000 USD in a public auction completed on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying sale is the sale of a single trading card, including but not limited to sports cards, Pokémon and other trading card game cards, and non-sport trading cards at a public auction conducted by Goldin or Heritage Auctions, for a total price strictly greater than $16,492,000 USD. The total price including buyer's premium and fees counts, consistent with the $16,492,000 benchmark set by the sale of Logan Paul's Pikachu Illustrator card at Goldin in February 2026. Private sales, fixed-price sales, and sales through any other venue or auction house do not count. Only completed auction sales count. Listings, asking prices, unmet reserves, withdrawn lots, and unverified sales do not count. Sales of multi-card lots, sealed products, or bundles do not count; the qualifying price must be attributable to a single card (associated accessories or memorabilia included with the card, as in the benchmark sale, do not disqualify it). If a qualifying sale is voided, rescinded, or determined to be fraudulent or non-bona fide (including non-payment by the winning bidder) prior to resolution, it will not count. Sales denominated in other currencies will be converted to USD at the exchange rate on the date of sale. If at least one qualifying sale occurs within the window, this market will resolve to "Yes" as soon as the sale is confirmed by the resolution sources. If no qualifying sale occurs by the deadline, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements and auction results from Goldin (https://goldin.co) and Heritage Auctions (https://www.ha.com). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The record $16.492 million sale of Logan Paul's PSA 10 Pikachu Illustrator Pokémon card in February 2026 established an exceptionally high benchmark driven by its extreme rarity—one of the few known copies and the sole Gem Mint 10—plus celebrity ownership, a high-profile Goldin auction with added elements like a diamond necklace, and strong collector demand for the "holy grail" of Pokémon cards. Since then, even standout 2026 sales such as an $11 million private Ohtani Logoman or multimillion-dollar LeBron and Mantle pieces have fallen well short, reflecting limited supply of comparable ultra-rare, perfect-grade items in the remaining months. Trader consensus at 91.5% for "No" reflects this scarcity and the infrequency of record-shattering transactions, though an unexpected 1/1 superstar pull or perfectly timed high-end auction could still test the barrier.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single trading card sells for more than $16,492,000 USD in a public auction completed on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying sale is the sale of a single trading card, including but not limited to sports cards, Pokémon and other trading card game cards, and non-sport trading cards at a public auction conducted by Goldin or Heritage Auctions, for a total price strictly greater than $16,492,000 USD. The total price including buyer's premium and fees counts, consistent with the $16,492,000 benchmark set by the sale of Logan Paul's Pikachu Illustrator card at Goldin in February 2026. Private sales, fixed-price sales, and sales through any other venue or auction house do not count.

Only completed auction sales count. Listings, asking prices, unmet reserves, withdrawn lots, and unverified sales do not count. Sales of multi-card lots, sealed products, or bundles do not count; the qualifying price must be attributable to a single card (associated accessories or memorabilia included with the card, as in the benchmark sale, do not disqualify it). If a qualifying sale is voided, rescinded, or determined to be fraudulent or non-bona fide (including non-payment by the winning bidder) prior to resolution, it will not count. Sales denominated in other currencies will be converted to USD at the exchange rate on the date of sale.

If at least one qualifying sale occurs within the window, this market will resolve to "Yes" as soon as the sale is confirmed by the resolution sources. If no qualifying sale occurs by the deadline, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements and auction results from Goldin (https://goldin.co) and Heritage Auctions (https://www.ha.com). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,766
Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single trading card sells for more than $16,492,000 USD in a public auction completed on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying sale is the sale of a single trading card, including but not limited to sports cards, Pokémon and other trading card game cards, and non-sport trading cards at a public auction conducted by Goldin or Heritage Auctions, for a total price strictly greater than $16,492,000 USD. The total price including buyer's premium and fees counts, consistent with the $16,492,000 benchmark set by the sale of Logan Paul's Pikachu Illustrator card at Goldin in February 2026. Private sales, fixed-price sales, and sales through any other venue or auction house do not count. Only completed auction sales count. Listings, asking prices, unmet reserves, withdrawn lots, and unverified sales do not count. Sales of multi-card lots, sealed products, or bundles do not count; the qualifying price must be attributable to a single card (associated accessories or memorabilia included with the card, as in the benchmark sale, do not disqualify it). If a qualifying sale is voided, rescinded, or determined to be fraudulent or non-bona fide (including non-payment by the winning bidder) prior to resolution, it will not count. Sales denominated in other currencies will be converted to USD at the exchange rate on the date of sale. If at least one qualifying sale occurs within the window, this market will resolve to "Yes" as soon as the sale is confirmed by the resolution sources. If no qualifying sale occurs by the deadline, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements and auction results from Goldin (https://goldin.co) and Heritage Auctions (https://www.ha.com). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Does a card sell for more than Logan’s record $16,492,000 by the end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 9% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 9¢, the market collectively assigns a 9% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Does a card sell for more than Logan’s record $16,492,000 by the end of 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 13, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Does a card sell for more than Logan’s record $16,492,000 by the end of 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Does a card sell for more than Logan’s record $16,492,000 by the end of 2026?" is 9% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 9% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Does a card sell for more than Logan’s record $16,492,000 by the end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.