**Recent polling momentum and Ford’s firm public stance support the strong trader consensus that he will remain PC Party leader past December 31.** Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives lead the Liberals 39–35% in the latest Liaison Strategies survey (Aug. 23–24), with Ford’s personal approval rising sharply from 24% to 36% amid his high-profile response to U.S. tariffs. This rebound follows his February 2025 snap-election victory that delivered a third consecutive majority—the first such feat since 1959—and reinforces his position within the caucus. Ford has repeatedly dismissed speculation about his departure, stating he is “not Justin Trudeau” and intends to continue leading. While potential successors such as Energy Minister Stephen Lecce or former leader Patrick Brown receive occasional mention, no organized challenge, leadership review, or resignation signals have emerged. Earlier 2026 internal tensions, including cabinet departures and caucus adjustments, have not translated into sustained pressure on the premier. With the next scheduled election in 2029 and no procedural triggers or polling collapse evident, traders see little basis for an abrupt leadership change within the four-month window.