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Politics·Global Elections

Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner

icon for Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner
Politics·Global Elections

Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner

Ricardo Ferraço 87%

Lorenzo Pazolini 10%

Arnaldinho Borgo <1%

Sergio Vidigal <1%

Polymarket

$32,150 Vol.

Ricardo Ferraço 87%

Lorenzo Pazolini 10%

Arnaldinho Borgo <1%

Sergio Vidigal <1%

Polymarket

$32,150 Vol.

Ricardo Ferraço

$11,398 Vol.

87%

Lorenzo Pazolini

$9,099 Vol.

10%

Arnaldinho Borgo

$4,655 Vol.

<1%

Sergio Vidigal

$3,569 Vol.

<1%

Euclério Sampaio

$3,428 Vol.

<1%

The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ricardo Ferraço holds an overwhelming lead in the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial race as the incumbent MDB governor who assumed office in April 2026 following Renato Casagrande’s resignation to seek a Senate seat. Recent Real Time Big Data polling from July shows Ferraço at 41% in first-round scenarios against 30% for main challenger Lorenzo Pazolini, with strong approval ratings near 76% supporting his position. His broad coalition and path to re-election on October 4 have shaped trader consensus around an 87% implied probability, while Pazolini, the former Vitória mayor now running with Republicanos, sits near 11%. Other confirmed or potential candidates, including Helder Salomão of the PT, Sergio Vidigal, Arnaldinho Borgo, and Euclério Sampaio, register minimal support in surveys and negligible market pricing.

The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$32,150
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ricardo Ferraço holds an overwhelming lead in the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial race as the incumbent MDB governor who assumed office in April 2026 following Renato Casagrande’s resignation to seek a Senate seat. Recent Real Time Big Data polling from July shows Ferraço at 41% in first-round scenarios against 30% for main challenger Lorenzo Pazolini, with strong approval ratings near 76% supporting his position. His broad coalition and path to re-election on October 4 have shaped trader consensus around an 87% implied probability, while Pazolini, the former Vitória mayor now running with Republicanos, sits near 11%. Other confirmed or potential candidates, including Helder Salomão of the PT, Sergio Vidigal, Arnaldinho Borgo, and Euclério Sampaio, register minimal support in surveys and negligible market pricing.

The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$32,150
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ricardo Ferraço" at 87%, followed by "Lorenzo Pazolini" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 87¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner" has generated $32.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner" is "Ricardo Ferraço" at 87%, meaning the market assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lorenzo Pazolini" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.