**Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy base in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian control amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict that began in February 2026.** US strikes have targeted Iranian military assets on nearby islands including Greater Tunb, Abu Musa, Kharg, Qeshm, and Larak, focusing on coastal defenses, missile sites, and naval infrastructure tied to Strait of Hormuz operations. Discussions of potential ground seizures or occupation of Iranian-held islands have surfaced as options to reopen shipping lanes, though no confirmed operations have altered sovereignty over Farsi Island itself. Iran continues to assert control from multiple coastal and island positions, while recent Iran-Oman talks address temporary navigation corridors and mine clearance. Trader assessments hinge on further escalation, any direct moves against Farsi or similar bases, and the trajectory of diplomatic or military efforts to secure the strait through late 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$177,560 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
<1%
September 30
2%
$177,560 Vol.
August 31
$168,341 Vol.
<1%
September 30
$327 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy base in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian control amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict that began in February 2026.** US strikes have targeted Iranian military assets on nearby islands including Greater Tunb, Abu Musa, Kharg, Qeshm, and Larak, focusing on coastal defenses, missile sites, and naval infrastructure tied to Strait of Hormuz operations. Discussions of potential ground seizures or occupation of Iranian-held islands have surfaced as options to reopen shipping lanes, though no confirmed operations have altered sovereignty over Farsi Island itself. Iran continues to assert control from multiple coastal and island positions, while recent Iran-Oman talks address temporary navigation corridors and mine clearance. Trader assessments hinge on further escalation, any direct moves against Farsi or similar bases, and the trajectory of diplomatic or military efforts to secure the strait through late 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
Volume
$177,560End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy base in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian control amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict that began in February 2026.** US strikes have targeted Iranian military assets on nearby islands including Greater Tunb, Abu Musa, Kharg, Qeshm, and Larak, focusing on coastal defenses, missile sites, and naval infrastructure tied to Strait of Hormuz operations. Discussions of potential ground seizures or occupation of Iranian-held islands have surfaced as options to reopen shipping lanes, though no confirmed operations have altered sovereignty over Farsi Island itself. Iran continues to assert control from multiple coastal and island positions, while recent Iran-Oman talks address temporary navigation corridors and mine clearance. Trader assessments hinge on further escalation, any direct moves against Farsi or similar bases, and the trajectory of diplomatic or military efforts to secure the strait through late 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$177,560End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy base in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian control amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict that began in February 2026.** US strikes have targeted Iranian military assets on nearby islands including Greater Tunb, Abu Musa, Kharg, Qeshm, and Larak, focusing on coastal defenses, missile sites, and naval infrastructure tied to Strait of Hormuz operations. Discussions of potential ground seizures or occupation of Iranian-held islands have surfaced as options to reopen shipping lanes, though no confirmed operations have altered sovereignty over Farsi Island itself. Iran continues to assert control from multiple coastal and island positions, while recent Iran-Oman talks address temporary navigation corridors and mine clearance. Trader assessments hinge on further escalation, any direct moves against Farsi or similar bases, and the trajectory of diplomatic or military efforts to secure the strait through late 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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