The tightly matched probabilities for second place in the October 9–10 first round reflect a fragmented field of seven declared candidates from the Parti socialiste, Place publique, and Gauche républicaine et sociale, with no clear consolidation behind a single challenger. Olivier Faure’s position as party first secretary and Jérôme Guedj’s established parliamentary profile provide organizational edges, while Raphaël Glucksmann benefits from broader name recognition; these factors keep vote shares competitive ahead of the September 15 parrainage deadline. Internal tensions over the semi-closed format, participation fees, and debate participation have further dispersed support. The October 1 prime-time debate on France 2 and France Inter, plus the September 23 LCI event, represent the next measurable catalysts that could shift momentum and clarify second-place positioning before voting begins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOlivier Faure 39%
Raphaël Glucksmann 13%
Philippe Brun 9%
Jérôme Guedj 9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 10, 2026
Olivier Faure
39%
Raphaël Glucksmann
13%
Philippe Brun
9%
Jérôme Guedj
12%
Ségolène Royal
7%
Emmanuel Maurel
6%
Olivier Faure 39%
Raphaël Glucksmann 13%
Philippe Brun 9%
Jérôme Guedj 9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 10, 2026
Olivier Faure
$423 Vol.
39%
Raphaël Glucksmann
$1,351 Vol.
13%
Philippe Brun
$69 Vol.
9%
Jérôme Guedj
$208 Vol.
12%
Ségolène Royal
$927 Vol.
7%
Emmanuel Maurel
$212 Vol.
6%
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the second-greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.The tightly matched probabilities for second place in the October 9–10 first round reflect a fragmented field of seven declared candidates from the Parti socialiste, Place publique, and Gauche républicaine et sociale, with no clear consolidation behind a single challenger. Olivier Faure’s position as party first secretary and Jérôme Guedj’s established parliamentary profile provide organizational edges, while Raphaël Glucksmann benefits from broader name recognition; these factors keep vote shares competitive ahead of the September 15 parrainage deadline. Internal tensions over the semi-closed format, participation fees, and debate participation have further dispersed support. The October 1 prime-time debate on France 2 and France Inter, plus the September 23 LCI event, represent the next measurable catalysts that could shift momentum and clarify second-place positioning before voting begins.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the second-greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the second-greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
Volume
$3,189End Date
Oct 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 6:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the second-greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.The tightly matched probabilities for second place in the October 9–10 first round reflect a fragmented field of seven declared candidates from the Parti socialiste, Place publique, and Gauche républicaine et sociale, with no clear consolidation behind a single challenger. Olivier Faure’s position as party first secretary and Jérôme Guedj’s established parliamentary profile provide organizational edges, while Raphaël Glucksmann benefits from broader name recognition; these factors keep vote shares competitive ahead of the September 15 parrainage deadline. Internal tensions over the semi-closed format, participation fees, and debate participation have further dispersed support. The October 1 prime-time debate on France 2 and France Inter, plus the September 23 LCI event, represent the next measurable catalysts that could shift momentum and clarify second-place positioning before voting begins.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the second-greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the second-greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Volume
$3,189End Date
Oct 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 6:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tightly matched probabilities for second place in the October 9–10 first round reflect a fragmented field of seven declared candidates from the Parti socialiste, Place publique, and Gauche républicaine et sociale, with no clear consolidation behind a single challenger. Olivier Faure’s position as party first secretary and Jérôme Guedj’s established parliamentary profile provide organizational edges, while Raphaël Glucksmann benefits from broader name recognition; these factors keep vote shares competitive ahead of the September 15 parrainage deadline. Internal tensions over the semi-closed format, participation fees, and debate participation have further dispersed support. The October 1 prime-time debate on France 2 and France Inter, plus the September 23 LCI event, represent the next measurable catalysts that could shift momentum and clarify second-place positioning before voting begins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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