**Grok 5 remains unreleased as of late August 2026 after missing its original Q1 and Q2 targets.** xAI confirmed the large Mixture-of-Experts model (reported 6T–10T parameters) entered training during its January 2026 Series E round on the Colossus 2 supercluster, but subsequent focus has shifted to rapid 4.x iterations: Grok 4.5 shipped publicly in July with strong agentic and coding performance, followed by Elon Musk’s late-July teases of Grok 4.6 (~1.5T parameters, targeted around August 7) and 4.7 shortly after. A Grok account post in mid-August reaffirmed a year-end 2026 release window as Colossus scales beyond 2 GW. Trader sentiment reflects these repeated delays alongside xAI’s aggressive cadence and competitive pressure from models like Kimi, positioning end-of-year as the current consensus horizon while leaving room for further slips or surprise accelerations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Dec 31, 2026
August 31
<1%
October 31
18%
November 30
51%
December 31
71%
$8,565 Vol.
August 31
$3,541 Vol.
<1%
October 31
$1,769 Vol.
18%
November 30
$21 Vol.
51%
December 31
$1,711 Vol.
71%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**Grok 5 remains unreleased as of late August 2026 after missing its original Q1 and Q2 targets.** xAI confirmed the large Mixture-of-Experts model (reported 6T–10T parameters) entered training during its January 2026 Series E round on the Colossus 2 supercluster, but subsequent focus has shifted to rapid 4.x iterations: Grok 4.5 shipped publicly in July with strong agentic and coding performance, followed by Elon Musk’s late-July teases of Grok 4.6 (~1.5T parameters, targeted around August 7) and 4.7 shortly after. A Grok account post in mid-August reaffirmed a year-end 2026 release window as Colossus scales beyond 2 GW. Trader sentiment reflects these repeated delays alongside xAI’s aggressive cadence and competitive pressure from models like Kimi, positioning end-of-year as the current consensus horizon while leaving room for further slips or surprise accelerations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Volume
$8,565End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**Grok 5 remains unreleased as of late August 2026 after missing its original Q1 and Q2 targets.** xAI confirmed the large Mixture-of-Experts model (reported 6T–10T parameters) entered training during its January 2026 Series E round on the Colossus 2 supercluster, but subsequent focus has shifted to rapid 4.x iterations: Grok 4.5 shipped publicly in July with strong agentic and coding performance, followed by Elon Musk’s late-July teases of Grok 4.6 (~1.5T parameters, targeted around August 7) and 4.7 shortly after. A Grok account post in mid-August reaffirmed a year-end 2026 release window as Colossus scales beyond 2 GW. Trader sentiment reflects these repeated delays alongside xAI’s aggressive cadence and competitive pressure from models like Kimi, positioning end-of-year as the current consensus horizon while leaving room for further slips or surprise accelerations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$8,565End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Grok 5 remains unreleased as of late August 2026 after missing its original Q1 and Q2 targets.** xAI confirmed the large Mixture-of-Experts model (reported 6T–10T parameters) entered training during its January 2026 Series E round on the Colossus 2 supercluster, but subsequent focus has shifted to rapid 4.x iterations: Grok 4.5 shipped publicly in July with strong agentic and coding performance, followed by Elon Musk’s late-July teases of Grok 4.6 (~1.5T parameters, targeted around August 7) and 4.7 shortly after. A Grok account post in mid-August reaffirmed a year-end 2026 release window as Colossus scales beyond 2 GW. Trader sentiment reflects these repeated delays alongside xAI’s aggressive cadence and competitive pressure from models like Kimi, positioning end-of-year as the current consensus horizon while leaving room for further slips or surprise accelerations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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