Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and related reasoning models currently top verified HLE leaderboards at 64.7%, while OpenAI’s strongest 2026 entries—GPT-5.4 Pro (~58.7%) and GPT-5.6 Sol (~49.5%)—trail by 6–15 points on text-only and agentic evaluations. Rapid frontier gains since HLE’s early-2025 launch (single digits to mid-60s) stem from extended chain-of-thought, verification scaffolds, and larger-scale training, outpacing original projections for saturation. OpenAI’s frequent GPT-5.x iterations and inference-time compute focus remain the main swing factor for closing the gap before year-end, though Anthropic’s consistent lead on expert-level multi-domain questions creates a steep bar. Traders watch for any new OpenAI release or benchmark configuration that could push scores into the low-to-mid 60s.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$52,106 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
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$52,106 Vol.
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$9,227 Vol.
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$19,880 Vol.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and related reasoning models currently top verified HLE leaderboards at 64.7%, while OpenAI’s strongest 2026 entries—GPT-5.4 Pro (~58.7%) and GPT-5.6 Sol (~49.5%)—trail by 6–15 points on text-only and agentic evaluations. Rapid frontier gains since HLE’s early-2025 launch (single digits to mid-60s) stem from extended chain-of-thought, verification scaffolds, and larger-scale training, outpacing original projections for saturation. OpenAI’s frequent GPT-5.x iterations and inference-time compute focus remain the main swing factor for closing the gap before year-end, though Anthropic’s consistent lead on expert-level multi-domain questions creates a steep bar. Traders watch for any new OpenAI release or benchmark configuration that could push scores into the low-to-mid 60s.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ET
Volume
$52,106End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and related reasoning models currently top verified HLE leaderboards at 64.7%, while OpenAI’s strongest 2026 entries—GPT-5.4 Pro (~58.7%) and GPT-5.6 Sol (~49.5%)—trail by 6–15 points on text-only and agentic evaluations. Rapid frontier gains since HLE’s early-2025 launch (single digits to mid-60s) stem from extended chain-of-thought, verification scaffolds, and larger-scale training, outpacing original projections for saturation. OpenAI’s frequent GPT-5.x iterations and inference-time compute focus remain the main swing factor for closing the gap before year-end, though Anthropic’s consistent lead on expert-level multi-domain questions creates a steep bar. Traders watch for any new OpenAI release or benchmark configuration that could push scores into the low-to-mid 60s.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$52,106End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and related reasoning models currently top verified HLE leaderboards at 64.7%, while OpenAI’s strongest 2026 entries—GPT-5.4 Pro (~58.7%) and GPT-5.6 Sol (~49.5%)—trail by 6–15 points on text-only and agentic evaluations. Rapid frontier gains since HLE’s early-2025 launch (single digits to mid-60s) stem from extended chain-of-thought, verification scaffolds, and larger-scale training, outpacing original projections for saturation. OpenAI’s frequent GPT-5.x iterations and inference-time compute focus remain the main swing factor for closing the gap before year-end, though Anthropic’s consistent lead on expert-level multi-domain questions creates a steep bar. Traders watch for any new OpenAI release or benchmark configuration that could push scores into the low-to-mid 60s.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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