Moderate global seismic activity, concentrated along the Pacific Ring of Fire, underpins the closely matched market-implied odds favoring 7 or 8 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes for August 24–30. USGS data show recent M6.0 events in Indonesia’s Banda Sea and off Japan, plus an M5.5 in the Philippine Sea on the 25th, alongside multiple M5.0–5.3 detections through the 28th. These reflect typical tectonic strain release at subduction zones, with aftershocks from earlier August mainshocks adding to the tally. Traders weigh the remaining day’s potential for new events or magnitude revisions against historical weekly baselines of roughly 6–9 such quakes, creating the tight 7-versus-8 contest amid normal variability in real-time cataloging.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 24 - August 30?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 24 - August 30?
7 27%
8 26%
≤6 16.5%
9 16%
$16,919 Vol.
$16,919 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
≤6
17%
7
27%
8
26%
9
16%
10
8%
11
7%
12
2%
13
2%
more than 13
2%
7 27%
8 26%
≤6 16.5%
9 16%
$16,919 Vol.
$16,919 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
≤6
$9,645 Vol.
17%
7
$1,189 Vol.
27%
8
$438 Vol.
26%
9
$503 Vol.
16%
10
$254 Vol.
8%
11
$127 Vol.
7%
12
$1,087 Vol.
2%
13
$876 Vol.
2%
more than 13
$2,800 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Moderate global seismic activity, concentrated along the Pacific Ring of Fire, underpins the closely matched market-implied odds favoring 7 or 8 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes for August 24–30. USGS data show recent M6.0 events in Indonesia’s Banda Sea and off Japan, plus an M5.5 in the Philippine Sea on the 25th, alongside multiple M5.0–5.3 detections through the 28th. These reflect typical tectonic strain release at subduction zones, with aftershocks from earlier August mainshocks adding to the tally. Traders weigh the remaining day’s potential for new events or magnitude revisions against historical weekly baselines of roughly 6–9 such quakes, creating the tight 7-versus-8 contest amid normal variability in real-time cataloging.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
Volume
$16,919End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Moderate global seismic activity, concentrated along the Pacific Ring of Fire, underpins the closely matched market-implied odds favoring 7 or 8 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes for August 24–30. USGS data show recent M6.0 events in Indonesia’s Banda Sea and off Japan, plus an M5.5 in the Philippine Sea on the 25th, alongside multiple M5.0–5.3 detections through the 28th. These reflect typical tectonic strain release at subduction zones, with aftershocks from earlier August mainshocks adding to the tally. Traders weigh the remaining day’s potential for new events or magnitude revisions against historical weekly baselines of roughly 6–9 such quakes, creating the tight 7-versus-8 contest amid normal variability in real-time cataloging.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$16,919End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Moderate global seismic activity, concentrated along the Pacific Ring of Fire, underpins the closely matched market-implied odds favoring 7 or 8 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes for August 24–30. USGS data show recent M6.0 events in Indonesia’s Banda Sea and off Japan, plus an M5.5 in the Philippine Sea on the 25th, alongside multiple M5.0–5.3 detections through the 28th. These reflect typical tectonic strain release at subduction zones, with aftershocks from earlier August mainshocks adding to the tally. Traders weigh the remaining day’s potential for new events or magnitude revisions against historical weekly baselines of roughly 6–9 such quakes, creating the tight 7-versus-8 contest amid normal variability in real-time cataloging.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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