**Global seismicity follows a roughly Poisson distribution around a long-term average of about 0.9 magnitude 6.5+ events per week, derived from roughly 46 such quakes annually.** With no active aftershock sequences, swarms, or elevated rates reported by USGS monitoring in early September 2026, and recent activity limited to isolated events like the M6.3 near Alaska on September 3, trader consensus heavily favors zero or one event in the September 7–13 window. Plate-boundary tectonics in the Ring of Fire and other subduction zones drive the baseline rate, but short-term variability remains high due to the stochastic nature of rupture on major faults. Upcoming USGS and international network updates will provide the definitive count against the M6.5 threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
0 42%
1 34%
2 16%
3 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
0
42%
1
34%
2
16%
3
4%
4
3%
5
1%
more than 5
1%
0 42%
1 34%
2 16%
3 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
0
$121 Vol.
42%
1
$0 Vol.
34%
2
$0 Vol.
16%
3
$12 Vol.
4%
4
$0 Vol.
3%
5
$99 Vol.
1%
more than 5
$58 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.**Global seismicity follows a roughly Poisson distribution around a long-term average of about 0.9 magnitude 6.5+ events per week, derived from roughly 46 such quakes annually.** With no active aftershock sequences, swarms, or elevated rates reported by USGS monitoring in early September 2026, and recent activity limited to isolated events like the M6.3 near Alaska on September 3, trader consensus heavily favors zero or one event in the September 7–13 window. Plate-boundary tectonics in the Ring of Fire and other subduction zones drive the baseline rate, but short-term variability remains high due to the stochastic nature of rupture on major faults. Upcoming USGS and international network updates will provide the definitive count against the M6.5 threshold.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
Volume
$289End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.**Global seismicity follows a roughly Poisson distribution around a long-term average of about 0.9 magnitude 6.5+ events per week, derived from roughly 46 such quakes annually.** With no active aftershock sequences, swarms, or elevated rates reported by USGS monitoring in early September 2026, and recent activity limited to isolated events like the M6.3 near Alaska on September 3, trader consensus heavily favors zero or one event in the September 7–13 window. Plate-boundary tectonics in the Ring of Fire and other subduction zones drive the baseline rate, but short-term variability remains high due to the stochastic nature of rupture on major faults. Upcoming USGS and international network updates will provide the definitive count against the M6.5 threshold.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$289End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Global seismicity follows a roughly Poisson distribution around a long-term average of about 0.9 magnitude 6.5+ events per week, derived from roughly 46 such quakes annually.** With no active aftershock sequences, swarms, or elevated rates reported by USGS monitoring in early September 2026, and recent activity limited to isolated events like the M6.3 near Alaska on September 3, trader consensus heavily favors zero or one event in the September 7–13 window. Plate-boundary tectonics in the Ring of Fire and other subduction zones drive the baseline rate, but short-term variability remains high due to the stochastic nature of rupture on major faults. Upcoming USGS and international network updates will provide the definitive count against the M6.5 threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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