**The leading trader consensus of one Democratic seat in Alabama’s seven House districts (68.5%) reflects the impact of the 2023 legislative map now in effect for 2026.** Following Supreme Court action in June 2026 that cleared the way for Alabama to implement its preferred lines—reducing the state to a single majority-Black district—District 7 remains the only reliably Democratic seat, held by long-serving incumbent Terri Sewell. The other six districts carry Republican partisan leans ranging from R+7 to R+33, with five currently held by Republicans. **District 2 stands out as the sole competitive race.** Democrat Shomari Figures, who won the seat in 2024 under a prior court-drawn map, faces a redrawn district that leans Republican by roughly seven points. Nonpartisan ratings place it in the Lean or Likely Republican category, though some recent internal polling has shown the race within a few points. A strong national Democratic environment or candidate-specific performance could allow Figures to hold on, which underpins the 21.5% probability assigned to two Democratic seats. Zero or three-plus seats remain low-probability outliers given the current map and candidate fields. Upcoming factors that could shift probabilities include the outcome of the August 11 special primaries, final candidate matchups, and any late-cycle polling or national political trends affecting turnout and margins in the November 3 general election. The market pricing captures the structural advantage the current district lines give Republicans while leaving room for District 2 to move in either direction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1 69%
2 20%
0 4.3%
3+ 2.6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 2, 2026
0
4%
1
69%
2
20%
3+
3%
1 69%
2 20%
0 4.3%
3+ 2.6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 2, 2026
0
$466 Vol.
4%
1
$1,242 Vol.
69%
2
$2,555 Vol.
20%
3+
$355 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Alabama in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Alabama US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.**The leading trader consensus of one Democratic seat in Alabama’s seven House districts (68.5%) reflects the impact of the 2023 legislative map now in effect for 2026.** Following Supreme Court action in June 2026 that cleared the way for Alabama to implement its preferred lines—reducing the state to a single majority-Black district—District 7 remains the only reliably Democratic seat, held by long-serving incumbent Terri Sewell. The other six districts carry Republican partisan leans ranging from R+7 to R+33, with five currently held by Republicans.
**District 2 stands out as the sole competitive race.** Democrat Shomari Figures, who won the seat in 2024 under a prior court-drawn map, faces a redrawn district that leans Republican by roughly seven points. Nonpartisan ratings place it in the Lean or Likely Republican category, though some recent internal polling has shown the race within a few points. A strong national Democratic environment or candidate-specific performance could allow Figures to hold on, which underpins the 21.5% probability assigned to two Democratic seats. Zero or three-plus seats remain low-probability outliers given the current map and candidate fields.
Upcoming factors that could shift probabilities include the outcome of the August 11 special primaries, final candidate matchups, and any late-cycle polling or national political trends affecting turnout and margins in the November 3 general election. The market pricing captures the structural advantage the current district lines give Republicans while leaving room for District 2 to move in either direction.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Alabama in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Alabama US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Alabama US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 10:01 AM ET
Volume
$4,617End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Alabama in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Alabama US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.**The leading trader consensus of one Democratic seat in Alabama’s seven House districts (68.5%) reflects the impact of the 2023 legislative map now in effect for 2026.** Following Supreme Court action in June 2026 that cleared the way for Alabama to implement its preferred lines—reducing the state to a single majority-Black district—District 7 remains the only reliably Democratic seat, held by long-serving incumbent Terri Sewell. The other six districts carry Republican partisan leans ranging from R+7 to R+33, with five currently held by Republicans.
**District 2 stands out as the sole competitive race.** Democrat Shomari Figures, who won the seat in 2024 under a prior court-drawn map, faces a redrawn district that leans Republican by roughly seven points. Nonpartisan ratings place it in the Lean or Likely Republican category, though some recent internal polling has shown the race within a few points. A strong national Democratic environment or candidate-specific performance could allow Figures to hold on, which underpins the 21.5% probability assigned to two Democratic seats. Zero or three-plus seats remain low-probability outliers given the current map and candidate fields.
Upcoming factors that could shift probabilities include the outcome of the August 11 special primaries, final candidate matchups, and any late-cycle polling or national political trends affecting turnout and margins in the November 3 general election. The market pricing captures the structural advantage the current district lines give Republicans while leaving room for District 2 to move in either direction.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Alabama in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Alabama US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Alabama US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,617End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**The leading trader consensus of one Democratic seat in Alabama’s seven House districts (68.5%) reflects the impact of the 2023 legislative map now in effect for 2026.** Following Supreme Court action in June 2026 that cleared the way for Alabama to implement its preferred lines—reducing the state to a single majority-Black district—District 7 remains the only reliably Democratic seat, held by long-serving incumbent Terri Sewell. The other six districts carry Republican partisan leans ranging from R+7 to R+33, with five currently held by Republicans. **District 2 stands out as the sole competitive race.** Democrat Shomari Figures, who won the seat in 2024 under a prior court-drawn map, faces a redrawn district that leans Republican by roughly seven points. Nonpartisan ratings place it in the Lean or Likely Republican category, though some recent internal polling has shown the race within a few points. A strong national Democratic environment or candidate-specific performance could allow Figures to hold on, which underpins the 21.5% probability assigned to two Democratic seats. Zero or three-plus seats remain low-probability outliers given the current map and candidate fields. Upcoming factors that could shift probabilities include the outcome of the August 11 special primaries, final candidate matchups, and any late-cycle polling or national political trends affecting turnout and margins in the November 3 general election. The market pricing captures the structural advantage the current district lines give Republicans while leaving room for District 2 to move in either direction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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