**Arizona’s nine congressional districts feature three seats held by Democrats that nonpartisan forecasters rate as safe or solid, while two Republican-held seats—open AZ-1 and AZ-6—stand as the primary battlegrounds, rated toss-ups by outlets including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball.** Republicans currently hold a 6-3 edge following the 2024 cycle. AZ-1 became open after Rep. David Schweikert retired to run for governor; Democrat Amish Shah (primary winner) faces Republican Jay Feely in a Phoenix-area district that has trended competitive. AZ-6 pits incumbent Juan Ciscomani against Democrat JoAnna Mendoza in a Tucson-suburban seat that has seen narrow Republican wins in recent cycles and stronger Democratic performance in concurrent statewide races. The other six districts remain non-competitive based on partisan voting indices and historical margins. Recent July 2026 primaries finalized general-election matchups without major surprises, leaving outcomes sensitive to candidate performance, fundraising, turnout patterns, and the broader national midterm environment ahead of November 3. Trader consensus favoring five Democratic seats reflects the realistic path of flipping both toss-ups while holding the existing three. Lower probabilities for four or six-plus seats align with the limited number of truly winnable districts and historical performance outside the battlegrounds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5 54%
4 16.9%
6 13%
3 7.0%
$12,517 Vol.
$12,517 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
<3
1%
3
7%
4
17%
5
54%
6
13%
7+
5%
5 54%
4 16.9%
6 13%
3 7.0%
$12,517 Vol.
$12,517 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
<3
$795 Vol.
1%
3
$4,515 Vol.
7%
4
$1,912 Vol.
17%
5
$3,368 Vol.
54%
6
$1,153 Vol.
13%
7+
$774 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.**Arizona’s nine congressional districts feature three seats held by Democrats that nonpartisan forecasters rate as safe or solid, while two Republican-held seats—open AZ-1 and AZ-6—stand as the primary battlegrounds, rated toss-ups by outlets including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball.**
Republicans currently hold a 6-3 edge following the 2024 cycle. AZ-1 became open after Rep. David Schweikert retired to run for governor; Democrat Amish Shah (primary winner) faces Republican Jay Feely in a Phoenix-area district that has trended competitive. AZ-6 pits incumbent Juan Ciscomani against Democrat JoAnna Mendoza in a Tucson-suburban seat that has seen narrow Republican wins in recent cycles and stronger Democratic performance in concurrent statewide races.
The other six districts remain non-competitive based on partisan voting indices and historical margins. Recent July 2026 primaries finalized general-election matchups without major surprises, leaving outcomes sensitive to candidate performance, fundraising, turnout patterns, and the broader national midterm environment ahead of November 3. Trader consensus favoring five Democratic seats reflects the realistic path of flipping both toss-ups while holding the existing three. Lower probabilities for four or six-plus seats align with the limited number of truly winnable districts and historical performance outside the battlegrounds.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ET
Volume
$12,517End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.**Arizona’s nine congressional districts feature three seats held by Democrats that nonpartisan forecasters rate as safe or solid, while two Republican-held seats—open AZ-1 and AZ-6—stand as the primary battlegrounds, rated toss-ups by outlets including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball.**
Republicans currently hold a 6-3 edge following the 2024 cycle. AZ-1 became open after Rep. David Schweikert retired to run for governor; Democrat Amish Shah (primary winner) faces Republican Jay Feely in a Phoenix-area district that has trended competitive. AZ-6 pits incumbent Juan Ciscomani against Democrat JoAnna Mendoza in a Tucson-suburban seat that has seen narrow Republican wins in recent cycles and stronger Democratic performance in concurrent statewide races.
The other six districts remain non-competitive based on partisan voting indices and historical margins. Recent July 2026 primaries finalized general-election matchups without major surprises, leaving outcomes sensitive to candidate performance, fundraising, turnout patterns, and the broader national midterm environment ahead of November 3. Trader consensus favoring five Democratic seats reflects the realistic path of flipping both toss-ups while holding the existing three. Lower probabilities for four or six-plus seats align with the limited number of truly winnable districts and historical performance outside the battlegrounds.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$12,517End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Arizona’s nine congressional districts feature three seats held by Democrats that nonpartisan forecasters rate as safe or solid, while two Republican-held seats—open AZ-1 and AZ-6—stand as the primary battlegrounds, rated toss-ups by outlets including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball.** Republicans currently hold a 6-3 edge following the 2024 cycle. AZ-1 became open after Rep. David Schweikert retired to run for governor; Democrat Amish Shah (primary winner) faces Republican Jay Feely in a Phoenix-area district that has trended competitive. AZ-6 pits incumbent Juan Ciscomani against Democrat JoAnna Mendoza in a Tucson-suburban seat that has seen narrow Republican wins in recent cycles and stronger Democratic performance in concurrent statewide races. The other six districts remain non-competitive based on partisan voting indices and historical margins. Recent July 2026 primaries finalized general-election matchups without major surprises, leaving outcomes sensitive to candidate performance, fundraising, turnout patterns, and the broader national midterm environment ahead of November 3. Trader consensus favoring five Democratic seats reflects the realistic path of flipping both toss-ups while holding the existing three. Lower probabilities for four or six-plus seats align with the limited number of truly winnable districts and historical performance outside the battlegrounds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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