Recent mid-decade redistricting in Florida has redrawn several districts to favor Republicans, targeting Democratic incumbents such as Kathy Castor in the 14th and Jared Moskowitz in the 25th while leaving a handful of other seats competitive. Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate multiple Florida races as toss-ups or leans following August primaries, with Castor’s contest shifting toward even odds on fresh polling. A national midterm climate showing Democratic advantages on the generic ballot and lower presidential approval has offset some map effects, keeping outcomes fluid in Tampa Bay and South Florida districts. The dispersed market prices across 7–12+ seats reflect uncertainty over how many vulnerable Democratic-held districts will hold versus flip, with further polling, candidate performance, and turnout patterns likely to narrow trader consensus before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated12+ 14%
7 12%
11 11%
4 9.7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 2, 2026
<4
1%
4
10%
5
9%
6
9%
7
12%
8
9%
9
5%
10
18%
11
11%
12+
14%
12+ 14%
7 12%
11 11%
4 9.7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 2, 2026
<4
$167 Vol.
1%
4
$1,251 Vol.
10%
5
$425 Vol.
9%
6
$270 Vol.
9%
7
$393 Vol.
12%
8
$242 Vol.
9%
9
$322 Vol.
5%
10
$580 Vol.
18%
11
$324 Vol.
11%
12+
$389 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent mid-decade redistricting in Florida has redrawn several districts to favor Republicans, targeting Democratic incumbents such as Kathy Castor in the 14th and Jared Moskowitz in the 25th while leaving a handful of other seats competitive. Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate multiple Florida races as toss-ups or leans following August primaries, with Castor’s contest shifting toward even odds on fresh polling. A national midterm climate showing Democratic advantages on the generic ballot and lower presidential approval has offset some map effects, keeping outcomes fluid in Tampa Bay and South Florida districts. The dispersed market prices across 7–12+ seats reflect uncertainty over how many vulnerable Democratic-held districts will hold versus flip, with further polling, candidate performance, and turnout patterns likely to narrow trader consensus before November.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ET
Volume
$4,363End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent mid-decade redistricting in Florida has redrawn several districts to favor Republicans, targeting Democratic incumbents such as Kathy Castor in the 14th and Jared Moskowitz in the 25th while leaving a handful of other seats competitive. Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate multiple Florida races as toss-ups or leans following August primaries, with Castor’s contest shifting toward even odds on fresh polling. A national midterm climate showing Democratic advantages on the generic ballot and lower presidential approval has offset some map effects, keeping outcomes fluid in Tampa Bay and South Florida districts. The dispersed market prices across 7–12+ seats reflect uncertainty over how many vulnerable Democratic-held districts will hold versus flip, with further polling, candidate performance, and turnout patterns likely to narrow trader consensus before November.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,363End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent mid-decade redistricting in Florida has redrawn several districts to favor Republicans, targeting Democratic incumbents such as Kathy Castor in the 14th and Jared Moskowitz in the 25th while leaving a handful of other seats competitive. Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate multiple Florida races as toss-ups or leans following August primaries, with Castor’s contest shifting toward even odds on fresh polling. A national midterm climate showing Democratic advantages on the generic ballot and lower presidential approval has offset some map effects, keeping outcomes fluid in Tampa Bay and South Florida districts. The dispersed market prices across 7–12+ seats reflect uncertainty over how many vulnerable Democratic-held districts will hold versus flip, with further polling, candidate performance, and turnout patterns likely to narrow trader consensus before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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