Iran's denial of IAEA access to the damaged enrichment and storage facilities at Isfahan, Fordow, and Natanz since the 2025 strikes and February 2026 escalation has left the agency unable to verify stocks of highly enriched uranium or the status of centrifuges at those sites. A June 2026 US-Iran interim memorandum of understanding explicitly called for IAEA supervision of nuclear activities and prompted Director General Rafael Grossi to announce that inspections would proceed, with talks on modalities underway. Iranian officials have since conditioned any visits on a final bilateral agreement, sanctions relief, new protocols for attacked sites, and parliamentary approval, as reiterated by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran on August 26. Limited IAEA monitoring continues only at undamaged locations such as Bushehr, while satellite imagery tracks activity at the restricted complexes. Any breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations or formal protocol agreement could enable visits; persistent deadlock or further military developments would likely sustain the impasse.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
$368,286 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
<1%
October 31
6%
December 31
13%
$368,286 Vol.
August 31
$57,396 Vol.
<1%
October 31
$81,637 Vol.
6%
December 31
$35,929 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's denial of IAEA access to the damaged enrichment and storage facilities at Isfahan, Fordow, and Natanz since the 2025 strikes and February 2026 escalation has left the agency unable to verify stocks of highly enriched uranium or the status of centrifuges at those sites. A June 2026 US-Iran interim memorandum of understanding explicitly called for IAEA supervision of nuclear activities and prompted Director General Rafael Grossi to announce that inspections would proceed, with talks on modalities underway. Iranian officials have since conditioned any visits on a final bilateral agreement, sanctions relief, new protocols for attacked sites, and parliamentary approval, as reiterated by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran on August 26. Limited IAEA monitoring continues only at undamaged locations such as Bushehr, while satellite imagery tracks activity at the restricted complexes. Any breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations or formal protocol agreement could enable visits; persistent deadlock or further military developments would likely sustain the impasse.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 8, 2026, 8:34 PM ET
Volume
$368,286End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 8:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's denial of IAEA access to the damaged enrichment and storage facilities at Isfahan, Fordow, and Natanz since the 2025 strikes and February 2026 escalation has left the agency unable to verify stocks of highly enriched uranium or the status of centrifuges at those sites. A June 2026 US-Iran interim memorandum of understanding explicitly called for IAEA supervision of nuclear activities and prompted Director General Rafael Grossi to announce that inspections would proceed, with talks on modalities underway. Iranian officials have since conditioned any visits on a final bilateral agreement, sanctions relief, new protocols for attacked sites, and parliamentary approval, as reiterated by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran on August 26. Limited IAEA monitoring continues only at undamaged locations such as Bushehr, while satellite imagery tracks activity at the restricted complexes. Any breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations or formal protocol agreement could enable visits; persistent deadlock or further military developments would likely sustain the impasse.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$368,286End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 8:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's denial of IAEA access to the damaged enrichment and storage facilities at Isfahan, Fordow, and Natanz since the 2025 strikes and February 2026 escalation has left the agency unable to verify stocks of highly enriched uranium or the status of centrifuges at those sites. A June 2026 US-Iran interim memorandum of understanding explicitly called for IAEA supervision of nuclear activities and prompted Director General Rafael Grossi to announce that inspections would proceed, with talks on modalities underway. Iranian officials have since conditioned any visits on a final bilateral agreement, sanctions relief, new protocols for attacked sites, and parliamentary approval, as reiterated by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran on August 26. Limited IAEA monitoring continues only at undamaged locations such as Bushehr, while satellite imagery tracks activity at the restricted complexes. Any breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations or formal protocol agreement could enable visits; persistent deadlock or further military developments would likely sustain the impasse.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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