Incumbent Republican Michael Simpson’s decisive May 2026 primary victory and the district’s consistent Republican lean in eastern and rural Idaho continue to anchor trader pricing at 94.5% for the Republican nominee. Cook, Sabato, and other forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure, low national spending, and Simpson’s long tenure. The Democratic nominee, Elinor Gilbreath, advanced easily but faces structural headwinds with no competitive general-election polling released since the primaries. A Republican win remains the overwhelming consensus among traders, though an unforeseen scandal, incumbent health event, or dramatic national midterm shift could theoretically compress the margin before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedID-02 House Election Winner
ID-02 House Election Winner
$31,053 Vol.
$31,053 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
6%
$31,053 Vol.
$31,053 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$13,246 Vol.
95%
Democratic Party
$17,807 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Michael Simpson’s decisive May 2026 primary victory and the district’s consistent Republican lean in eastern and rural Idaho continue to anchor trader pricing at 94.5% for the Republican nominee. Cook, Sabato, and other forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure, low national spending, and Simpson’s long tenure. The Democratic nominee, Elinor Gilbreath, advanced easily but faces structural headwinds with no competitive general-election polling released since the primaries. A Republican win remains the overwhelming consensus among traders, though an unforeseen scandal, incumbent health event, or dramatic national midterm shift could theoretically compress the margin before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$31,053End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Michael Simpson’s decisive May 2026 primary victory and the district’s consistent Republican lean in eastern and rural Idaho continue to anchor trader pricing at 94.5% for the Republican nominee. Cook, Sabato, and other forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure, low national spending, and Simpson’s long tenure. The Democratic nominee, Elinor Gilbreath, advanced easily but faces structural headwinds with no competitive general-election polling released since the primaries. A Republican win remains the overwhelming consensus among traders, though an unforeseen scandal, incumbent health event, or dramatic national midterm shift could theoretically compress the margin before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$31,053End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Michael Simpson’s decisive May 2026 primary victory and the district’s consistent Republican lean in eastern and rural Idaho continue to anchor trader pricing at 94.5% for the Republican nominee. Cook, Sabato, and other forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure, low national spending, and Simpson’s long tenure. The Democratic nominee, Elinor Gilbreath, advanced easily but faces structural headwinds with no competitive general-election polling released since the primaries. A Republican win remains the overwhelming consensus among traders, though an unforeseen scandal, incumbent health event, or dramatic national midterm shift could theoretically compress the margin before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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