**Ongoing implementation challenges in the June 2026 U.S.-brokered trilateral framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon continue to shape trader expectations against full normalization before 2027.** The accord establishes a sequenced process linking any Israeli redeployment from southern buffer zones to verified Hezbollah disarmament and expanded Lebanese Armed Forces control, with pilot zones as initial tests, but Hezbollah has rejected the deal as invalid and implementation has stalled amid disputes over verification standards. Lebanese officials distinguish security arrangements from diplomatic normalization, citing domestic opposition and linkage to broader regional issues, while Israeli statements emphasize maintaining zones until threats diminish. Recent Rome talks through August have produced limited technical progress without advancing to mutual recognition, embassies, or open relations. With roughly four months remaining and Hezbollah retaining significant military capacity, these structural barriers sustain the high probability assigned to no normalization.