**Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five posts from the relevant Khamenei account(s) during August 25–September 1, 2026, at an 87% implied probability.** This positioning stems from the current Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s limited public profile and low-frequency official communications since succeeding his father following the latter’s death in early 2026 US-Israeli strikes. Recent activity centers on commemorative events, such as fortieth-day memorials in mid-to-late August, which have been handled primarily through institutional channels rather than direct, high-volume leader posts. Ongoing regional tensions and health-related speculation around the leadership have further constrained routine social media engagement, aligning with historical patterns of variable but often sparse posting from these accounts during periods of transition or sensitivity. Scheduled events within the resolution window, including any potential statements tied to security or mourning cycles, remain the primary variables that could incrementally shift volume, though current evidence points to restrained output.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKhamenei # posts August 25 - September 1, 2026?
Khamenei # posts August 25 - September 1, 2026?
<5 87%
5-9 7.8%
15-19 5.4%
10-14 1.8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
<5
87%
5-9
8%
10-14
2%
15-19
5%
20-24
<1%
25-29
<1%
30-34
<1%
35-39
<1%
40-44
<1%
45-49
<1%
50-54
<1%
55-59
<1%
60+
1%
<5 87%
5-9 7.8%
15-19 5.4%
10-14 1.8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
<5
$2,363 Vol.
87%
5-9
$362 Vol.
8%
10-14
$341 Vol.
2%
15-19
$318 Vol.
5%
20-24
$336 Vol.
<1%
25-29
$298 Vol.
<1%
30-34
$308 Vol.
<1%
35-39
$140 Vol.
<1%
40-44
$264 Vol.
<1%
45-49
$264 Vol.
<1%
50-54
$254 Vol.
<1%
55-59
$261 Vol.
<1%
60+
$253 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 25, 12:00 PM ET and September 1, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five posts from the relevant Khamenei account(s) during August 25–September 1, 2026, at an 87% implied probability.** This positioning stems from the current Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s limited public profile and low-frequency official communications since succeeding his father following the latter’s death in early 2026 US-Israeli strikes. Recent activity centers on commemorative events, such as fortieth-day memorials in mid-to-late August, which have been handled primarily through institutional channels rather than direct, high-volume leader posts. Ongoing regional tensions and health-related speculation around the leadership have further constrained routine social media engagement, aligning with historical patterns of variable but often sparse posting from these accounts during periods of transition or sensitivity. Scheduled events within the resolution window, including any potential statements tied to security or mourning cycles, remain the primary variables that could incrementally shift volume, though current evidence points to restrained output.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 25, 12:00 PM ET and September 1, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$5,763End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 25, 12:00 PM ET and September 1, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five posts from the relevant Khamenei account(s) during August 25–September 1, 2026, at an 87% implied probability.** This positioning stems from the current Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s limited public profile and low-frequency official communications since succeeding his father following the latter’s death in early 2026 US-Israeli strikes. Recent activity centers on commemorative events, such as fortieth-day memorials in mid-to-late August, which have been handled primarily through institutional channels rather than direct, high-volume leader posts. Ongoing regional tensions and health-related speculation around the leadership have further constrained routine social media engagement, aligning with historical patterns of variable but often sparse posting from these accounts during periods of transition or sensitivity. Scheduled events within the resolution window, including any potential statements tied to security or mourning cycles, remain the primary variables that could incrementally shift volume, though current evidence points to restrained output.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 25, 12:00 PM ET and September 1, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$5,763End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five posts from the relevant Khamenei account(s) during August 25–September 1, 2026, at an 87% implied probability.** This positioning stems from the current Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s limited public profile and low-frequency official communications since succeeding his father following the latter’s death in early 2026 US-Israeli strikes. Recent activity centers on commemorative events, such as fortieth-day memorials in mid-to-late August, which have been handled primarily through institutional channels rather than direct, high-volume leader posts. Ongoing regional tensions and health-related speculation around the leadership have further constrained routine social media engagement, aligning with historical patterns of variable but often sparse posting from these accounts during periods of transition or sensitivity. Scheduled events within the resolution window, including any potential statements tied to security or mourning cycles, remain the primary variables that could incrementally shift volume, though current evidence points to restrained output.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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