No at 78.5% reflects the low historical frequency of the market’s strict thresholds—Category 5 U.S. landfalls, VEI-6+ eruptions, 8.5+ earthquakes, or 10-kiloton+ meteor strikes—none of which have occurred in 2026 to date. National Hurricane Center data show an early Atlantic season with limited intensification risk so far, while USGS and Smithsonian records indicate no qualifying seismic or volcanic activity since January. These events remain statistically uncommon on annual timescales, supporting trader consensus that the combined probability stays below one-in-four absent a major shift in conditions or new observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
22% chance
$243,041 Vol.
$243,041 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
22% chance
$243,041 Vol.
$243,041 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
No at 78.5% reflects the low historical frequency of the market’s strict thresholds—Category 5 U.S. landfalls, VEI-6+ eruptions, 8.5+ earthquakes, or 10-kiloton+ meteor strikes—none of which have occurred in 2026 to date. National Hurricane Center data show an early Atlantic season with limited intensification risk so far, while USGS and Smithsonian records indicate no qualifying seismic or volcanic activity since January. These events remain statistically uncommon on annual timescales, supporting trader consensus that the combined probability stays below one-in-four absent a major shift in conditions or new observations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$243,041End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
No at 78.5% reflects the low historical frequency of the market’s strict thresholds—Category 5 U.S. landfalls, VEI-6+ eruptions, 8.5+ earthquakes, or 10-kiloton+ meteor strikes—none of which have occurred in 2026 to date. National Hurricane Center data show an early Atlantic season with limited intensification risk so far, while USGS and Smithsonian records indicate no qualifying seismic or volcanic activity since January. These events remain statistically uncommon on annual timescales, supporting trader consensus that the combined probability stays below one-in-four absent a major shift in conditions or new observations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$243,041End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No at 78.5% reflects the low historical frequency of the market’s strict thresholds—Category 5 U.S. landfalls, VEI-6+ eruptions, 8.5+ earthquakes, or 10-kiloton+ meteor strikes—none of which have occurred in 2026 to date. National Hurricane Center data show an early Atlantic season with limited intensification risk so far, while USGS and Smithsonian records indicate no qualifying seismic or volcanic activity since January. These events remain statistically uncommon on annual timescales, supporting trader consensus that the combined probability stays below one-in-four absent a major shift in conditions or new observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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