**Below-average monsoon rainfall has kept Seoul's August 2026 precipitation totals far below the long-term normal of approximately 348 mm.** Official station observations through August 28 show a cumulative 132 mm—only 38% of average—with the largest daily totals limited to isolated events such as 54 mm on the 22nd. Forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global models indicate just a few additional millimeters through the month’s end, leaving the final total almost certain to finish under 150 mm. Trader consensus at 96.3% for the lowest bin reflects this verified observational deficit and the low probability of late-month convective bursts altering the outcome. Only an unforecast extreme rainfall event exceeding 15–20 mm in the final 48 hours could realistically push the total into higher bins.