**Recent polling ahead of the September 6, 2026, Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election shows the BSW consistently at or below the 5% threshold.** The latest Infratest dimap survey (August 24–25) placed the party at 4%, unchanged from July, while other August polls from INSA and pollytix ranged from 4–5%. Aggregated trends hover around 4.1%, reflecting limited momentum in the final stretch. The BSW has faced structural challenges in the state, including competition from the established Left party (polling 11–13%) and modest overall support for smaller parties. Earlier 2025–early 2026 surveys occasionally showed higher figures, but readings have stabilized near or under the hurdle in the campaign’s closing phase. With the vote just days away and no reported surge in BSW backing, traders assign an 81.5% implied probability to the “Under” outcome, consistent with the current consensus in state-level surveys.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
19% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
Over
19% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if BSW wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if BSW wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).**Recent polling ahead of the September 6, 2026, Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election shows the BSW consistently at or below the 5% threshold.** The latest Infratest dimap survey (August 24–25) placed the party at 4%, unchanged from July, while other August polls from INSA and pollytix ranged from 4–5%. Aggregated trends hover around 4.1%, reflecting limited momentum in the final stretch.
The BSW has faced structural challenges in the state, including competition from the established Left party (polling 11–13%) and modest overall support for smaller parties. Earlier 2025–early 2026 surveys occasionally showed higher figures, but readings have stabilized near or under the hurdle in the campaign’s closing phase. With the vote just days away and no reported surge in BSW backing, traders assign an 81.5% implied probability to the “Under” outcome, consistent with the current consensus in state-level surveys.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if BSW wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if BSW wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if BSW wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if BSW wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:26 PM ET
Volume
$4,774End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if BSW wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if BSW wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).**Recent polling ahead of the September 6, 2026, Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election shows the BSW consistently at or below the 5% threshold.** The latest Infratest dimap survey (August 24–25) placed the party at 4%, unchanged from July, while other August polls from INSA and pollytix ranged from 4–5%. Aggregated trends hover around 4.1%, reflecting limited momentum in the final stretch.
The BSW has faced structural challenges in the state, including competition from the established Left party (polling 11–13%) and modest overall support for smaller parties. Earlier 2025–early 2026 surveys occasionally showed higher figures, but readings have stabilized near or under the hurdle in the campaign’s closing phase. With the vote just days away and no reported surge in BSW backing, traders assign an 81.5% implied probability to the “Under” outcome, consistent with the current consensus in state-level surveys.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if BSW wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if BSW wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if BSW wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if BSW wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Volume
$4,774End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling ahead of the September 6, 2026, Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election shows the BSW consistently at or below the 5% threshold.** The latest Infratest dimap survey (August 24–25) placed the party at 4%, unchanged from July, while other August polls from INSA and pollytix ranged from 4–5%. Aggregated trends hover around 4.1%, reflecting limited momentum in the final stretch. The BSW has faced structural challenges in the state, including competition from the established Left party (polling 11–13%) and modest overall support for smaller parties. Earlier 2025–early 2026 surveys occasionally showed higher figures, but readings have stabilized near or under the hurdle in the campaign’s closing phase. With the vote just days away and no reported surge in BSW backing, traders assign an 81.5% implied probability to the “Under” outcome, consistent with the current consensus in state-level surveys.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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