The near-certainty in trader consensus that Donald Trump will remain president past August 31, 2026 stems primarily from the compressed two-day resolution window, during which no institutional mechanisms—such as Senate impeachment proceedings, invocation of the 25th Amendment by the cabinet, or a formal resignation—could realistically activate without prior public signals or legislative groundwork. With the 2024 election results placing Trump in office for a term extending to 2029 and no active congressional sessions or medical disclosures indicating incapacity, the implied probability reflects the absence of any verified catalysts capable of altering succession in this timeframe. While late-breaking health events, unanticipated legal interventions, or sudden executive announcements remain theoretically possible, historical patterns of presidential continuity demonstrate these require extended deliberation and documentation far exceeding the current horizon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<1% chance
$2,536,919 Vol.
$2,536,919 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1% chance
$2,536,919 Vol.
$2,536,919 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The near-certainty in trader consensus that Donald Trump will remain president past August 31, 2026 stems primarily from the compressed two-day resolution window, during which no institutional mechanisms—such as Senate impeachment proceedings, invocation of the 25th Amendment by the cabinet, or a formal resignation—could realistically activate without prior public signals or legislative groundwork. With the 2024 election results placing Trump in office for a term extending to 2029 and no active congressional sessions or medical disclosures indicating incapacity, the implied probability reflects the absence of any verified catalysts capable of altering succession in this timeframe. While late-breaking health events, unanticipated legal interventions, or sudden executive announcements remain theoretically possible, historical patterns of presidential continuity demonstrate these require extended deliberation and documentation far exceeding the current horizon.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 5:24 PM ET
Volume
$2,536,919End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 5:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The near-certainty in trader consensus that Donald Trump will remain president past August 31, 2026 stems primarily from the compressed two-day resolution window, during which no institutional mechanisms—such as Senate impeachment proceedings, invocation of the 25th Amendment by the cabinet, or a formal resignation—could realistically activate without prior public signals or legislative groundwork. With the 2024 election results placing Trump in office for a term extending to 2029 and no active congressional sessions or medical disclosures indicating incapacity, the implied probability reflects the absence of any verified catalysts capable of altering succession in this timeframe. While late-breaking health events, unanticipated legal interventions, or sudden executive announcements remain theoretically possible, historical patterns of presidential continuity demonstrate these require extended deliberation and documentation far exceeding the current horizon.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,536,919End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 5:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The near-certainty in trader consensus that Donald Trump will remain president past August 31, 2026 stems primarily from the compressed two-day resolution window, during which no institutional mechanisms—such as Senate impeachment proceedings, invocation of the 25th Amendment by the cabinet, or a formal resignation—could realistically activate without prior public signals or legislative groundwork. With the 2024 election results placing Trump in office for a term extending to 2029 and no active congressional sessions or medical disclosures indicating incapacity, the implied probability reflects the absence of any verified catalysts capable of altering succession in this timeframe. While late-breaking health events, unanticipated legal interventions, or sudden executive announcements remain theoretically possible, historical patterns of presidential continuity demonstrate these require extended deliberation and documentation far exceeding the current horizon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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