**Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data for mid-to-late August 2026 show approximately 55% of national cattle inventory located in areas classified as moderate drought (D1) or worse, positioning the 50–59% bin as the market leader.** This reflects the concentration of cattle in drought-stressed rangeland and pasture regions of the Southern and High Plains, Intermountain West, and parts of the Southwest, where the U.S. Drought Monitor integrates precipitation deficits, soil moisture, vegetation indices, and temperature anomalies to delineate conditions. Key drivers include persistent severe-to-exceptional drought (D2–D4) across western Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Wyoming, and surrounding states, exacerbated by record July heat, inconsistent monsoon activity, and limited recent rainfall relief in core production areas. Some improvements occurred in eastern Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, and northern Kansas from mid-August storms, while degradations continued in the Southern Plains and North Dakota. Overall U.S. land area in drought (D1–D4) stands near 44%, but the cattle-weighted figure remains higher due to inventory distribution. With the September 1 week resolution relying on the next weekly USDA Ag in Drought update (drawing from the latest Drought Monitor), traders appear to anticipate modest stability or only incremental shifts around the current ~55% level absent major precipitation changes. Historical patterns show cattle-area drought percentages can fluctuate several points week-to-week with new model runs or rainfall, supporting the close contest between the 50–59% and 40–49% outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhat percent of U.S. cattle inventory area will be in drought? (week of September 1)
What percent of U.S. cattle inventory area will be in drought? (week of September 1)
50% to 59% 58%
40% to 49% 44%
60% or more 38%
Under 40% 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
Under 40%
26%
40% to 49%
44%
50% to 59%
58%
60% or more
38%
50% to 59% 58%
40% to 49% 44%
60% or more 38%
Under 40% 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
Under 40%
$125 Vol.
26%
40% to 49%
$0 Vol.
44%
50% to 59%
$0 Vol.
58%
60% or more
$0 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve based on the "D1-D4" value reported for "Percent of Cattle Inventory Affected by Drought" on the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table (https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2), maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with the USDA.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported percentage for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026. Each U.S. Drought Monitor release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final and will resolve this market independently of any later revisions or corrections.
If the source reports a value with decimals, it is rounded to the nearest whole number (a value of exactly 0.5 rounds up) before the bracket is selected. The brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints and do not overlap.
If no value for the week of September 1, 2026 is published by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published "D1-D4" value for cattle inventory with an effective date on or before September 1, 2026.**Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data for mid-to-late August 2026 show approximately 55% of national cattle inventory located in areas classified as moderate drought (D1) or worse, positioning the 50–59% bin as the market leader.** This reflects the concentration of cattle in drought-stressed rangeland and pasture regions of the Southern and High Plains, Intermountain West, and parts of the Southwest, where the U.S. Drought Monitor integrates precipitation deficits, soil moisture, vegetation indices, and temperature anomalies to delineate conditions.
Key drivers include persistent severe-to-exceptional drought (D2–D4) across western Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Wyoming, and surrounding states, exacerbated by record July heat, inconsistent monsoon activity, and limited recent rainfall relief in core production areas. Some improvements occurred in eastern Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, and northern Kansas from mid-August storms, while degradations continued in the Southern Plains and North Dakota. Overall U.S. land area in drought (D1–D4) stands near 44%, but the cattle-weighted figure remains higher due to inventory distribution.
With the September 1 week resolution relying on the next weekly USDA Ag in Drought update (drawing from the latest Drought Monitor), traders appear to anticipate modest stability or only incremental shifts around the current ~55% level absent major precipitation changes. Historical patterns show cattle-area drought percentages can fluctuate several points week-to-week with new model runs or rainfall, supporting the close contest between the 50–59% and 40–49% outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the "D1-D4" value reported for "Percent of Cattle Inventory Affected by Drought" on the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table (https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2), maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with the USDA.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported percentage for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026. Each U.S. Drought Monitor release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final and will resolve this market independently of any later revisions or corrections.
If the source reports a value with decimals, it is rounded to the nearest whole number (a value of exactly 0.5 rounds up) before the bracket is selected. The brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints and do not overlap.
If no value for the week of September 1, 2026 is published by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published "D1-D4" value for cattle inventory with an effective date on or before September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported percentage for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026. Each U.S. Drought Monitor release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final and will resolve this market independently of any later revisions or corrections.
If the source reports a value with decimals, it is rounded to the nearest whole number (a value of exactly 0.5 rounds up) before the bracket is selected. The brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints and do not overlap.
If no value for the week of September 1, 2026 is published by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published "D1-D4" value for cattle inventory with an effective date on or before September 1, 2026.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
Volume
$125End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolution Source
https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the "D1-D4" value reported for "Percent of Cattle Inventory Affected by Drought" on the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table (https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2), maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with the USDA.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported percentage for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026. Each U.S. Drought Monitor release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final and will resolve this market independently of any later revisions or corrections.
If the source reports a value with decimals, it is rounded to the nearest whole number (a value of exactly 0.5 rounds up) before the bracket is selected. The brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints and do not overlap.
If no value for the week of September 1, 2026 is published by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published "D1-D4" value for cattle inventory with an effective date on or before September 1, 2026.**Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data for mid-to-late August 2026 show approximately 55% of national cattle inventory located in areas classified as moderate drought (D1) or worse, positioning the 50–59% bin as the market leader.** This reflects the concentration of cattle in drought-stressed rangeland and pasture regions of the Southern and High Plains, Intermountain West, and parts of the Southwest, where the U.S. Drought Monitor integrates precipitation deficits, soil moisture, vegetation indices, and temperature anomalies to delineate conditions.
Key drivers include persistent severe-to-exceptional drought (D2–D4) across western Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Wyoming, and surrounding states, exacerbated by record July heat, inconsistent monsoon activity, and limited recent rainfall relief in core production areas. Some improvements occurred in eastern Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, and northern Kansas from mid-August storms, while degradations continued in the Southern Plains and North Dakota. Overall U.S. land area in drought (D1–D4) stands near 44%, but the cattle-weighted figure remains higher due to inventory distribution.
With the September 1 week resolution relying on the next weekly USDA Ag in Drought update (drawing from the latest Drought Monitor), traders appear to anticipate modest stability or only incremental shifts around the current ~55% level absent major precipitation changes. Historical patterns show cattle-area drought percentages can fluctuate several points week-to-week with new model runs or rainfall, supporting the close contest between the 50–59% and 40–49% outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the "D1-D4" value reported for "Percent of Cattle Inventory Affected by Drought" on the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Livestock and Forage Data Table (https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2), maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with the USDA.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported percentage for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026. Each U.S. Drought Monitor release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final and will resolve this market independently of any later revisions or corrections.
If the source reports a value with decimals, it is rounded to the nearest whole number (a value of exactly 0.5 rounds up) before the bracket is selected. The brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints and do not overlap.
If no value for the week of September 1, 2026 is published by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published "D1-D4" value for cattle inventory with an effective date on or before September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported percentage for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026. Each U.S. Drought Monitor release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final and will resolve this market independently of any later revisions or corrections.
If the source reports a value with decimals, it is rounded to the nearest whole number (a value of exactly 0.5 rounds up) before the bracket is selected. The brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints and do not overlap.
If no value for the week of September 1, 2026 is published by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published "D1-D4" value for cattle inventory with an effective date on or before September 1, 2026.
Volume
$125End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolution Source
https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data for mid-to-late August 2026 show approximately 55% of national cattle inventory located in areas classified as moderate drought (D1) or worse, positioning the 50–59% bin as the market leader.** This reflects the concentration of cattle in drought-stressed rangeland and pasture regions of the Southern and High Plains, Intermountain West, and parts of the Southwest, where the U.S. Drought Monitor integrates precipitation deficits, soil moisture, vegetation indices, and temperature anomalies to delineate conditions. Key drivers include persistent severe-to-exceptional drought (D2–D4) across western Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Wyoming, and surrounding states, exacerbated by record July heat, inconsistent monsoon activity, and limited recent rainfall relief in core production areas. Some improvements occurred in eastern Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, and northern Kansas from mid-August storms, while degradations continued in the Southern Plains and North Dakota. Overall U.S. land area in drought (D1–D4) stands near 44%, but the cattle-weighted figure remains higher due to inventory distribution. With the September 1 week resolution relying on the next weekly USDA Ag in Drought update (drawing from the latest Drought Monitor), traders appear to anticipate modest stability or only incremental shifts around the current ~55% level absent major precipitation changes. Historical patterns show cattle-area drought percentages can fluctuate several points week-to-week with new model runs or rainfall, supporting the close contest between the 50–59% and 40–49% outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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