Congressional inaction on comprehensive frontier AI safety legislation underpins the strong trader consensus against enactment by December 31, 2026. Multiple targeted bills and discussion drafts, including the Great American AI Act released in June 2026, have advanced only to committee stages or introduction amid debates over state preemption, regulatory scope, and mandatory audits or risk assessments. The House Science Committee reported bipartisan measures on NIST AI research centers, data guidelines, and transparency in June, while Senate panels advanced narrower child-focused chatbot rules, but none establish the prohibitive or enforcement-heavy provisions needed for market resolution. Midterm elections, partisan gridlock, and state-level actions in California, New York, and Illinois have further diverted momentum toward executive orders emphasizing innovation over new federal mandates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated11% chance
$101,873 Vol.
$101,873 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
11% chance
$101,873 Vol.
$101,873 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Congressional inaction on comprehensive frontier AI safety legislation underpins the strong trader consensus against enactment by December 31, 2026. Multiple targeted bills and discussion drafts, including the Great American AI Act released in June 2026, have advanced only to committee stages or introduction amid debates over state preemption, regulatory scope, and mandatory audits or risk assessments. The House Science Committee reported bipartisan measures on NIST AI research centers, data guidelines, and transparency in June, while Senate panels advanced narrower child-focused chatbot rules, but none establish the prohibitive or enforcement-heavy provisions needed for market resolution. Midterm elections, partisan gridlock, and state-level actions in California, New York, and Illinois have further diverted momentum toward executive orders emphasizing innovation over new federal mandates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Volume
$101,873End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Congressional inaction on comprehensive frontier AI safety legislation underpins the strong trader consensus against enactment by December 31, 2026. Multiple targeted bills and discussion drafts, including the Great American AI Act released in June 2026, have advanced only to committee stages or introduction amid debates over state preemption, regulatory scope, and mandatory audits or risk assessments. The House Science Committee reported bipartisan measures on NIST AI research centers, data guidelines, and transparency in June, while Senate panels advanced narrower child-focused chatbot rules, but none establish the prohibitive or enforcement-heavy provisions needed for market resolution. Midterm elections, partisan gridlock, and state-level actions in California, New York, and Illinois have further diverted momentum toward executive orders emphasizing innovation over new federal mandates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$101,873End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Congressional inaction on comprehensive frontier AI safety legislation underpins the strong trader consensus against enactment by December 31, 2026. Multiple targeted bills and discussion drafts, including the Great American AI Act released in June 2026, have advanced only to committee stages or introduction amid debates over state preemption, regulatory scope, and mandatory audits or risk assessments. The House Science Committee reported bipartisan measures on NIST AI research centers, data guidelines, and transparency in June, while Senate panels advanced narrower child-focused chatbot rules, but none establish the prohibitive or enforcement-heavy provisions needed for market resolution. Midterm elections, partisan gridlock, and state-level actions in California, New York, and Illinois have further diverted momentum toward executive orders emphasizing innovation over new federal mandates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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