Incumbent Democrat Kim Schrier secured over 53 percent in Washington’s August 4, 2026, top-two primary, advancing comfortably against a fragmented Republican field that split its support among multiple candidates. The district’s D+3 Partisan Voter Index, combined with consistent Solid or Likely Democratic ratings from major forecasters, underpins trader consensus for a Democratic hold. Schrier’s established incumbency since 2018, substantial fundraising edge, and the suburban eastern Seattle profile of the seat have reinforced this positioning ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican Spencer Meline. A national partisan shift, unusually low turnout, or significant late-cycle developments would be required to alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWA-08 House Election Winner
WA-08 House Election Winner
$22,010 Vol.
$22,010 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
4%
$22,010 Vol.
$22,010 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$9,208 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$12,802 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kim Schrier secured over 53 percent in Washington’s August 4, 2026, top-two primary, advancing comfortably against a fragmented Republican field that split its support among multiple candidates. The district’s D+3 Partisan Voter Index, combined with consistent Solid or Likely Democratic ratings from major forecasters, underpins trader consensus for a Democratic hold. Schrier’s established incumbency since 2018, substantial fundraising edge, and the suburban eastern Seattle profile of the seat have reinforced this positioning ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican Spencer Meline. A national partisan shift, unusually low turnout, or significant late-cycle developments would be required to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volume
$22,010End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kim Schrier secured over 53 percent in Washington’s August 4, 2026, top-two primary, advancing comfortably against a fragmented Republican field that split its support among multiple candidates. The district’s D+3 Partisan Voter Index, combined with consistent Solid or Likely Democratic ratings from major forecasters, underpins trader consensus for a Democratic hold. Schrier’s established incumbency since 2018, substantial fundraising edge, and the suburban eastern Seattle profile of the seat have reinforced this positioning ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican Spencer Meline. A national partisan shift, unusually low turnout, or significant late-cycle developments would be required to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$22,010End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Kim Schrier secured over 53 percent in Washington’s August 4, 2026, top-two primary, advancing comfortably against a fragmented Republican field that split its support among multiple candidates. The district’s D+3 Partisan Voter Index, combined with consistent Solid or Likely Democratic ratings from major forecasters, underpins trader consensus for a Democratic hold. Schrier’s established incumbency since 2018, substantial fundraising edge, and the suburban eastern Seattle profile of the seat have reinforced this positioning ahead of the November 3 general election against Republican Spencer Meline. A national partisan shift, unusually low turnout, or significant late-cycle developments would be required to alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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