US-Iran diplomatic efforts remain stalled six months after the start of hostilities in February 2026, with no active bilateral channel in place as of late August. Following a June memorandum of understanding and mediated technical discussions in Switzerland that addressed the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear inspections, and Lebanon deconfliction, the 60-day window for a final accord expired without agreement. The White House has shifted to intensified economic sanctions and pressure, stating that meaningful negotiations are not occurring, while Iranian officials condition any resumption on the lifting of those measures and fulfillment of prior commitments. Mediators Qatar and Pakistan continue back-channel work, including the Qatari prime minister’s recent Tehran visit focused on Hormuz arrangements, though direct high-level US-Iran meetings have not materialized. Traders assessing attendance by year-end will watch for shifts in sanctions policy, Hormuz access, or renewed mediator initiatives that could reopen talks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$322,261 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Steve Witkoff
35%
Abbas Araghchi
35%
Jared Kushner
34%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
33%
Ishaq Dar
32%
J.D. Vance
31%
Kazem Gharibabadi
24%
Nick Stewart
19%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
18%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
17%
Rafael Grossi
17%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
16%
Marco Rubio
13%
Masoud Pezeshkian
13%
Ahmad Vahidi
11%
Mohammed bin Salman
10%
Donald Trump
9%
Pete Hegseth
9%
Esmail Qaani
7%
Mojtaba Khamenei
5%
$322,261 Vol.
Steve Witkoff
$19,845 Vol.
35%
Abbas Araghchi
$7,882 Vol.
35%
Jared Kushner
$16,693 Vol.
34%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
$13,230 Vol.
33%
Ishaq Dar
$17,607 Vol.
32%
J.D. Vance
$20,976 Vol.
31%
Kazem Gharibabadi
$16,498 Vol.
24%
Nick Stewart
$12,894 Vol.
19%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
$16,966 Vol.
18%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
$30,152 Vol.
17%
Rafael Grossi
$21,855 Vol.
17%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
$32,087 Vol.
16%
Marco Rubio
$13,398 Vol.
13%
Masoud Pezeshkian
$19,299 Vol.
13%
Ahmad Vahidi
$7,946 Vol.
11%
Mohammed bin Salman
$41 Vol.
10%
Donald Trump
$8,653 Vol.
9%
Pete Hegseth
$15,438 Vol.
9%
Esmail Qaani
$10,910 Vol.
7%
Mojtaba Khamenei
$19,890 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomatic efforts remain stalled six months after the start of hostilities in February 2026, with no active bilateral channel in place as of late August. Following a June memorandum of understanding and mediated technical discussions in Switzerland that addressed the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear inspections, and Lebanon deconfliction, the 60-day window for a final accord expired without agreement. The White House has shifted to intensified economic sanctions and pressure, stating that meaningful negotiations are not occurring, while Iranian officials condition any resumption on the lifting of those measures and fulfillment of prior commitments. Mediators Qatar and Pakistan continue back-channel work, including the Qatari prime minister’s recent Tehran visit focused on Hormuz arrangements, though direct high-level US-Iran meetings have not materialized. Traders assessing attendance by year-end will watch for shifts in sanctions policy, Hormuz access, or renewed mediator initiatives that could reopen talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 9:57 AM ET
Volume
$322,261End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 9:57 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomatic efforts remain stalled six months after the start of hostilities in February 2026, with no active bilateral channel in place as of late August. Following a June memorandum of understanding and mediated technical discussions in Switzerland that addressed the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear inspections, and Lebanon deconfliction, the 60-day window for a final accord expired without agreement. The White House has shifted to intensified economic sanctions and pressure, stating that meaningful negotiations are not occurring, while Iranian officials condition any resumption on the lifting of those measures and fulfillment of prior commitments. Mediators Qatar and Pakistan continue back-channel work, including the Qatari prime minister’s recent Tehran visit focused on Hormuz arrangements, though direct high-level US-Iran meetings have not materialized. Traders assessing attendance by year-end will watch for shifts in sanctions policy, Hormuz access, or renewed mediator initiatives that could reopen talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$322,261End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 9:57 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran diplomatic efforts remain stalled six months after the start of hostilities in February 2026, with no active bilateral channel in place as of late August. Following a June memorandum of understanding and mediated technical discussions in Switzerland that addressed the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear inspections, and Lebanon deconfliction, the 60-day window for a final accord expired without agreement. The White House has shifted to intensified economic sanctions and pressure, stating that meaningful negotiations are not occurring, while Iranian officials condition any resumption on the lifting of those measures and fulfillment of prior commitments. Mediators Qatar and Pakistan continue back-channel work, including the Qatari prime minister’s recent Tehran visit focused on Hormuz arrangements, though direct high-level US-Iran meetings have not materialized. Traders assessing attendance by year-end will watch for shifts in sanctions policy, Hormuz access, or renewed mediator initiatives that could reopen talks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions