Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district, centered on Milwaukee County, carries a strong Democratic lean reflected in its consistent partisan voting index and election results. Incumbent Gwen Moore secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11 primary with over 70 percent of the vote against a challenger and enters the November general election against Republican nominee Tim Rogers, a perennial candidate who has previously received less than 25 percent. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that prices the Democratic outcome above 96 percent. No recent shifts in voter registration, fundraising, or candidate filings have altered this positioning. Scenarios that could still affect the outcome include a major scandal or unforeseen national political realignment capable of driving unusually high Republican turnout in the district.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWI-04 House Election Winner
WI-04 House Election Winner
$36,782 Vol.
$36,782 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
97%
Republican Party
1%
$36,782 Vol.
$36,782 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,351 Vol.
97%
Republican Party
$22,431 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district, centered on Milwaukee County, carries a strong Democratic lean reflected in its consistent partisan voting index and election results. Incumbent Gwen Moore secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11 primary with over 70 percent of the vote against a challenger and enters the November general election against Republican nominee Tim Rogers, a perennial candidate who has previously received less than 25 percent. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that prices the Democratic outcome above 96 percent. No recent shifts in voter registration, fundraising, or candidate filings have altered this positioning. Scenarios that could still affect the outcome include a major scandal or unforeseen national political realignment capable of driving unusually high Republican turnout in the district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$36,782End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district, centered on Milwaukee County, carries a strong Democratic lean reflected in its consistent partisan voting index and election results. Incumbent Gwen Moore secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11 primary with over 70 percent of the vote against a challenger and enters the November general election against Republican nominee Tim Rogers, a perennial candidate who has previously received less than 25 percent. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that prices the Democratic outcome above 96 percent. No recent shifts in voter registration, fundraising, or candidate filings have altered this positioning. Scenarios that could still affect the outcome include a major scandal or unforeseen national political realignment capable of driving unusually high Republican turnout in the district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$36,782End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district, centered on Milwaukee County, carries a strong Democratic lean reflected in its consistent partisan voting index and election results. Incumbent Gwen Moore secured the Democratic nomination in the August 11 primary with over 70 percent of the vote against a challenger and enters the November general election against Republican nominee Tim Rogers, a perennial candidate who has previously received less than 25 percent. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that prices the Democratic outcome above 96 percent. No recent shifts in voter registration, fundraising, or candidate filings have altered this positioning. Scenarios that could still affect the outcome include a major scandal or unforeseen national political realignment capable of driving unusually high Republican turnout in the district.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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