A developing El Niño event, with NOAA forecasting strong conditions through the August–October peak, has produced elevated Atlantic wind shear that suppresses tropical cyclone formation and rapid intensification, underpinning the below-normal 2026 seasonal outlook of 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and just 0–2 major hurricanes. As of late August, the basin remains unusually quiet with only three named storms and zero hurricanes formed. Category 5 landfalls on the U.S. mainland are historically rare—only four since 1851—and current steering patterns plus limited major-hurricane potential further reduce the odds. Traders therefore assign an 88.5% implied probability that no such storm reaches U.S. shores before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
11% chance
$139,614 Vol.
$139,614 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
11% chance
$139,614 Vol.
$139,614 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.A developing El Niño event, with NOAA forecasting strong conditions through the August–October peak, has produced elevated Atlantic wind shear that suppresses tropical cyclone formation and rapid intensification, underpinning the below-normal 2026 seasonal outlook of 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and just 0–2 major hurricanes. As of late August, the basin remains unusually quiet with only three named storms and zero hurricanes formed. Category 5 landfalls on the U.S. mainland are historically rare—only four since 1851—and current steering patterns plus limited major-hurricane potential further reduce the odds. Traders therefore assign an 88.5% implied probability that no such storm reaches U.S. shores before 2027.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$139,614End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.A developing El Niño event, with NOAA forecasting strong conditions through the August–October peak, has produced elevated Atlantic wind shear that suppresses tropical cyclone formation and rapid intensification, underpinning the below-normal 2026 seasonal outlook of 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and just 0–2 major hurricanes. As of late August, the basin remains unusually quiet with only three named storms and zero hurricanes formed. Category 5 landfalls on the U.S. mainland are historically rare—only four since 1851—and current steering patterns plus limited major-hurricane potential further reduce the odds. Traders therefore assign an 88.5% implied probability that no such storm reaches U.S. shores before 2027.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$139,614End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A developing El Niño event, with NOAA forecasting strong conditions through the August–October peak, has produced elevated Atlantic wind shear that suppresses tropical cyclone formation and rapid intensification, underpinning the below-normal 2026 seasonal outlook of 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and just 0–2 major hurricanes. As of late August, the basin remains unusually quiet with only three named storms and zero hurricanes formed. Category 5 landfalls on the U.S. mainland are historically rare—only four since 1851—and current steering patterns plus limited major-hurricane potential further reduce the odds. Traders therefore assign an 88.5% implied probability that no such storm reaches U.S. shores before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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