Russian forces have conducted infiltration missions into northern Sumy Oblast villages including Kindrativka as part of efforts to establish buffer zones along the border, with Ukrainian strikes reported against Russian personnel in western Kindrativka on August 26, 2026. Russian claims of seizing nearby Pysarivka rely partly on footage assessed by observers as potentially altered, while Ukrainian forces maintain control over key positions and continue targeting infiltrators. These tactical probes occur amid broader Russian advances elsewhere in Donetsk Oblast and Ukrainian defensive adjustments, including command restructuring. Trader assessments of capture timing reflect ongoing small-unit activity, Ukrainian drone and artillery responses, and the absence of large-scale mechanized breakthroughs in the sector.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Russia capture Kindrativka by...?
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by...?
$69,237 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
20%
$69,237 Vol.
September 30
$24,222 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 51.141847° N, 34.771637° E in Kindrativka, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS.png
Intersection Location in Kindrativka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS2.png
Kindrativka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/BTC6vHHmyYcJ1WETA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted infiltration missions into northern Sumy Oblast villages including Kindrativka as part of efforts to establish buffer zones along the border, with Ukrainian strikes reported against Russian personnel in western Kindrativka on August 26, 2026. Russian claims of seizing nearby Pysarivka rely partly on footage assessed by observers as potentially altered, while Ukrainian forces maintain control over key positions and continue targeting infiltrators. These tactical probes occur amid broader Russian advances elsewhere in Donetsk Oblast and Ukrainian defensive adjustments, including command restructuring. Trader assessments of capture timing reflect ongoing small-unit activity, Ukrainian drone and artillery responses, and the absence of large-scale mechanized breakthroughs in the sector.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 51.141847° N, 34.771637° E in Kindrativka, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS.png
Intersection Location in Kindrativka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS2.png
Kindrativka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/BTC6vHHmyYcJ1WETA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS.png
Intersection Location in Kindrativka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS2.png
Kindrativka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/BTC6vHHmyYcJ1WETA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 24, 2026, 10:04 PM ET
Volume
$69,237End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 24, 2026, 10:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 51.141847° N, 34.771637° E in Kindrativka, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS.png
Intersection Location in Kindrativka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS2.png
Kindrativka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/BTC6vHHmyYcJ1WETA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted infiltration missions into northern Sumy Oblast villages including Kindrativka as part of efforts to establish buffer zones along the border, with Ukrainian strikes reported against Russian personnel in western Kindrativka on August 26, 2026. Russian claims of seizing nearby Pysarivka rely partly on footage assessed by observers as potentially altered, while Ukrainian forces maintain control over key positions and continue targeting infiltrators. These tactical probes occur amid broader Russian advances elsewhere in Donetsk Oblast and Ukrainian defensive adjustments, including command restructuring. Trader assessments of capture timing reflect ongoing small-unit activity, Ukrainian drone and artillery responses, and the absence of large-scale mechanized breakthroughs in the sector.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 51.141847° N, 34.771637° E in Kindrativka, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS.png
Intersection Location in Kindrativka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS2.png
Kindrativka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/BTC6vHHmyYcJ1WETA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS.png
Intersection Location in Kindrativka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS2.png
Kindrativka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/BTC6vHHmyYcJ1WETA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$69,237End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 24, 2026, 10:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces have conducted infiltration missions into northern Sumy Oblast villages including Kindrativka as part of efforts to establish buffer zones along the border, with Ukrainian strikes reported against Russian personnel in western Kindrativka on August 26, 2026. Russian claims of seizing nearby Pysarivka rely partly on footage assessed by observers as potentially altered, while Ukrainian forces maintain control over key positions and continue targeting infiltrators. These tactical probes occur amid broader Russian advances elsewhere in Donetsk Oblast and Ukrainian defensive adjustments, including command restructuring. Trader assessments of capture timing reflect ongoing small-unit activity, Ukrainian drone and artillery responses, and the absence of large-scale mechanized breakthroughs in the sector.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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