The Islamic Republic has demonstrated resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior officials, with rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei and consolidation of power among hardline military and clerical figures. Security forces, including the IRGC and Basij, suppressed the widespread January 2026 protests—resulting in thousands of deaths and tens of thousands of arrests—without significant defections or elite fractures. Recent leadership appointments, ongoing crackdowns on dissent, and official emphasis on unity amid sanctions, a naval blockade, and currency collapse further reinforce institutional control. These factors underpin trader consensus that the regime is likely to endure through the short window to 2027, despite economic strain and external pressure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$25,309,949 Vol.
$25,309,949 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
$25,309,949 Vol.
$25,309,949 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic has demonstrated resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior officials, with rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei and consolidation of power among hardline military and clerical figures. Security forces, including the IRGC and Basij, suppressed the widespread January 2026 protests—resulting in thousands of deaths and tens of thousands of arrests—without significant defections or elite fractures. Recent leadership appointments, ongoing crackdowns on dissent, and official emphasis on unity amid sanctions, a naval blockade, and currency collapse further reinforce institutional control. These factors underpin trader consensus that the regime is likely to endure through the short window to 2027, despite economic strain and external pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$25,309,949End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic has demonstrated resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior officials, with rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei and consolidation of power among hardline military and clerical figures. Security forces, including the IRGC and Basij, suppressed the widespread January 2026 protests—resulting in thousands of deaths and tens of thousands of arrests—without significant defections or elite fractures. Recent leadership appointments, ongoing crackdowns on dissent, and official emphasis on unity amid sanctions, a naval blockade, and currency collapse further reinforce institutional control. These factors underpin trader consensus that the regime is likely to endure through the short window to 2027, despite economic strain and external pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$25,309,949End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Islamic Republic has demonstrated resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior officials, with rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei and consolidation of power among hardline military and clerical figures. Security forces, including the IRGC and Basij, suppressed the widespread January 2026 protests—resulting in thousands of deaths and tens of thousands of arrests—without significant defections or elite fractures. Recent leadership appointments, ongoing crackdowns on dissent, and official emphasis on unity amid sanctions, a naval blockade, and currency collapse further reinforce institutional control. These factors underpin trader consensus that the regime is likely to endure through the short window to 2027, despite economic strain and external pressure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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