The Islamic Republic’s demonstrated resilience through leadership succession, security force cohesion, and protest suppression underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against regime collapse before 2027. Despite the 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, triggered nationwide unrest, and inflicted infrastructure damage, an interim council rapidly installed Mojtaba Khamenei while the IRGC tightened control and avoided major defections. Economic pressures—including rial collapse to record lows, inflation exceeding 60-70%, and war-related unemployment—have fueled public hardship and fresh protest risks into August 2026, yet authorities have responded with targeted arrests, communications controls, and emphasis on domestic production to contain dissent. These factors reflect the regime’s historical capacity to endure external military and sanctions pressure without fracturing before the 2027 threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$25,309,717 Vol.
$25,309,717 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
$25,309,717 Vol.
$25,309,717 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic’s demonstrated resilience through leadership succession, security force cohesion, and protest suppression underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against regime collapse before 2027. Despite the 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, triggered nationwide unrest, and inflicted infrastructure damage, an interim council rapidly installed Mojtaba Khamenei while the IRGC tightened control and avoided major defections. Economic pressures—including rial collapse to record lows, inflation exceeding 60-70%, and war-related unemployment—have fueled public hardship and fresh protest risks into August 2026, yet authorities have responded with targeted arrests, communications controls, and emphasis on domestic production to contain dissent. These factors reflect the regime’s historical capacity to endure external military and sanctions pressure without fracturing before the 2027 threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$25,309,717End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic’s demonstrated resilience through leadership succession, security force cohesion, and protest suppression underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against regime collapse before 2027. Despite the 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, triggered nationwide unrest, and inflicted infrastructure damage, an interim council rapidly installed Mojtaba Khamenei while the IRGC tightened control and avoided major defections. Economic pressures—including rial collapse to record lows, inflation exceeding 60-70%, and war-related unemployment—have fueled public hardship and fresh protest risks into August 2026, yet authorities have responded with targeted arrests, communications controls, and emphasis on domestic production to contain dissent. These factors reflect the regime’s historical capacity to endure external military and sanctions pressure without fracturing before the 2027 threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$25,309,717End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Islamic Republic’s demonstrated resilience through leadership succession, security force cohesion, and protest suppression underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against regime collapse before 2027. Despite the 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, triggered nationwide unrest, and inflicted infrastructure damage, an interim council rapidly installed Mojtaba Khamenei while the IRGC tightened control and avoided major defections. Economic pressures—including rial collapse to record lows, inflation exceeding 60-70%, and war-related unemployment—have fueled public hardship and fresh protest risks into August 2026, yet authorities have responded with targeted arrests, communications controls, and emphasis on domestic production to contain dissent. These factors reflect the regime’s historical capacity to endure external military and sanctions pressure without fracturing before the 2027 threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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