Democratic control of the House after the November 2026 midterms represents the central driver of the 67% implied probability that articles of impeachment will pass before January 2029. Prediction markets currently assign Democrats an 85%+ chance of securing a majority, which would enable a simple-majority floor vote on charges similar to those already introduced by individual Democrats, including recent resolutions targeting immigration enforcement actions by ICE and CBP. President Trump has publicly stated that Democratic majorities would move to impeach, consistent with the two prior impeachments during his first term. Current Republican majorities have blocked or tabled such measures, but the anticipated change in House control and the procedural threshold for passage in that chamber underpin the longer-term trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$95,094 Vol.
$95,094 Vol.
$95,094 Vol.
$95,094 Vol.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Democratic control of the House after the November 2026 midterms represents the central driver of the 67% implied probability that articles of impeachment will pass before January 2029. Prediction markets currently assign Democrats an 85%+ chance of securing a majority, which would enable a simple-majority floor vote on charges similar to those already introduced by individual Democrats, including recent resolutions targeting immigration enforcement actions by ICE and CBP. President Trump has publicly stated that Democratic majorities would move to impeach, consistent with the two prior impeachments during his first term. Current Republican majorities have blocked or tabled such measures, but the anticipated change in House control and the procedural threshold for passage in that chamber underpin the longer-term trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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