Trump's second nonconsecutive term and the 22nd Amendment's two-term limit create steep procedural barriers to repeal in 2026. Any change would require two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress plus ratification by 38 states, thresholds unmet amid polarized legislative dynamics and Republican majorities short of supermajorities. Recent comments from the president acknowledge the amendment's strength while floating 2028 interest, yet no bills advancing repeal have gained traction, and opposition resolutions have reaffirmed the existing limit. Trader consensus at 96.9% on "No" reflects these structural and political realities. Late shifts could arise only from an unforeseen post-midterm realignment or coordinated Article V convention effort, both viewed as remote given historical amendment patterns and current party alignments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
$13,082 Vol.
$13,082 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
4% chance
$13,082 Vol.
$13,082 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.Trump's second nonconsecutive term and the 22nd Amendment's two-term limit create steep procedural barriers to repeal in 2026. Any change would require two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress plus ratification by 38 states, thresholds unmet amid polarized legislative dynamics and Republican majorities short of supermajorities. Recent comments from the president acknowledge the amendment's strength while floating 2028 interest, yet no bills advancing repeal have gained traction, and opposition resolutions have reaffirmed the existing limit. Trader consensus at 96.9% on "No" reflects these structural and political realities. Late shifts could arise only from an unforeseen post-midterm realignment or coordinated Article V convention effort, both viewed as remote given historical amendment patterns and current party alignments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Market Opened: Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$13,082End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.Trump's second nonconsecutive term and the 22nd Amendment's two-term limit create steep procedural barriers to repeal in 2026. Any change would require two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress plus ratification by 38 states, thresholds unmet amid polarized legislative dynamics and Republican majorities short of supermajorities. Recent comments from the president acknowledge the amendment's strength while floating 2028 interest, yet no bills advancing repeal have gained traction, and opposition resolutions have reaffirmed the existing limit. Trader consensus at 96.9% on "No" reflects these structural and political realities. Late shifts could arise only from an unforeseen post-midterm realignment or coordinated Article V convention effort, both viewed as remote given historical amendment patterns and current party alignments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Volume
$13,082End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's second nonconsecutive term and the 22nd Amendment's two-term limit create steep procedural barriers to repeal in 2026. Any change would require two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress plus ratification by 38 states, thresholds unmet amid polarized legislative dynamics and Republican majorities short of supermajorities. Recent comments from the president acknowledge the amendment's strength while floating 2028 interest, yet no bills advancing repeal have gained traction, and opposition resolutions have reaffirmed the existing limit. Trader consensus at 96.9% on "No" reflects these structural and political realities. Late shifts could arise only from an unforeseen post-midterm realignment or coordinated Article V convention effort, both viewed as remote given historical amendment patterns and current party alignments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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