Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 state election show a tight four-way contest at the top, with Die Linke often leading on 19–22 percent, followed closely by the CDU and AfD on 17–20 percent and the Greens holding steady near 16 percent while the SPD trails at 12–15 percent. This narrow spread among the second through fifth positions keeps the battle for fourth place competitive, as small shifts in turnout or late voter movement could reorder the middle of the field. The Greens’ consistent mid-teens support positions them as the current trader favorite for fourth, yet the AfD’s upward trend and the CDU’s incumbency base create ongoing uncertainty. Key factors that could separate the contenders include final-weekend turnout differences, any late campaign events, or unexpected strength among smaller parties that might push one of the larger ones lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGrüne 46%
AfD 20%
SPD 12%
CDU 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Grüne
46%
AfD
20%
SPD
12%
CDU
11%
Linke
5%
BSW
4%
FDP
4%
FW
3%
Grüne 46%
AfD 20%
SPD 12%
CDU 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Grüne
$3,561 Vol.
46%
AfD
$94 Vol.
20%
SPD
$91 Vol.
12%
CDU
$56 Vol.
11%
Linke
$460 Vol.
5%
BSW
$54 Vol.
4%
FDP
$99 Vol.
4%
FW
$84 Vol.
3%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 state election show a tight four-way contest at the top, with Die Linke often leading on 19–22 percent, followed closely by the CDU and AfD on 17–20 percent and the Greens holding steady near 16 percent while the SPD trails at 12–15 percent. This narrow spread among the second through fifth positions keeps the battle for fourth place competitive, as small shifts in turnout or late voter movement could reorder the middle of the field. The Greens’ consistent mid-teens support positions them as the current trader favorite for fourth, yet the AfD’s upward trend and the CDU’s incumbency base create ongoing uncertainty. Key factors that could separate the contenders include final-weekend turnout differences, any late campaign events, or unexpected strength among smaller parties that might push one of the larger ones lower.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$4,499End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 state election show a tight four-way contest at the top, with Die Linke often leading on 19–22 percent, followed closely by the CDU and AfD on 17–20 percent and the Greens holding steady near 16 percent while the SPD trails at 12–15 percent. This narrow spread among the second through fifth positions keeps the battle for fourth place competitive, as small shifts in turnout or late voter movement could reorder the middle of the field. The Greens’ consistent mid-teens support positions them as the current trader favorite for fourth, yet the AfD’s upward trend and the CDU’s incumbency base create ongoing uncertainty. Key factors that could separate the contenders include final-weekend turnout differences, any late campaign events, or unexpected strength among smaller parties that might push one of the larger ones lower.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$4,499End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 state election show a tight four-way contest at the top, with Die Linke often leading on 19–22 percent, followed closely by the CDU and AfD on 17–20 percent and the Greens holding steady near 16 percent while the SPD trails at 12–15 percent. This narrow spread among the second through fifth positions keeps the battle for fourth place competitive, as small shifts in turnout or late voter movement could reorder the middle of the field. The Greens’ consistent mid-teens support positions them as the current trader favorite for fourth, yet the AfD’s upward trend and the CDU’s incumbency base create ongoing uncertainty. Key factors that could separate the contenders include final-weekend turnout differences, any late campaign events, or unexpected strength among smaller parties that might push one of the larger ones lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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