Elevated July PCE inflation at 3.7% year-over-year and sticky core readings near 3.3%, alongside firmer labor market data, have narrowed the gap between market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike (47.5%) versus no change (44.5%) at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Recent FOMC projections under new Chair Kevin Warsh marked up 2026 inflation forecasts and shifted the median policy rate higher, reflecting concerns over supply-driven price pressures persisting into year-end. Traders are weighing these factors against moderating growth signals and the Fed's data-dependent approach, with the September and October meetings serving as key catalysts that could clarify whether incoming releases tip consensus toward tightening or a hold at the 3.5-3.75% target range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated25 bps increase 48%
No change 45%
25 bps decrease 5.4%
50+ bps increase 1.0%
$402,763 Vol.
$402,763 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
5%
No change
45%
25 bps increase
48%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps increase 48%
No change 45%
25 bps decrease 5.4%
50+ bps increase 1.0%
$402,763 Vol.
$402,763 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$68,818 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$81,079 Vol.
5%
No change
$66,468 Vol.
45%
25 bps increase
$107,574 Vol.
48%
50+ bps increase
$78,823 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated July PCE inflation at 3.7% year-over-year and sticky core readings near 3.3%, alongside firmer labor market data, have narrowed the gap between market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike (47.5%) versus no change (44.5%) at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Recent FOMC projections under new Chair Kevin Warsh marked up 2026 inflation forecasts and shifted the median policy rate higher, reflecting concerns over supply-driven price pressures persisting into year-end. Traders are weighing these factors against moderating growth signals and the Fed's data-dependent approach, with the September and October meetings serving as key catalysts that could clarify whether incoming releases tip consensus toward tightening or a hold at the 3.5-3.75% target range.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$402,763End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated July PCE inflation at 3.7% year-over-year and sticky core readings near 3.3%, alongside firmer labor market data, have narrowed the gap between market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike (47.5%) versus no change (44.5%) at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Recent FOMC projections under new Chair Kevin Warsh marked up 2026 inflation forecasts and shifted the median policy rate higher, reflecting concerns over supply-driven price pressures persisting into year-end. Traders are weighing these factors against moderating growth signals and the Fed's data-dependent approach, with the September and October meetings serving as key catalysts that could clarify whether incoming releases tip consensus toward tightening or a hold at the 3.5-3.75% target range.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$402,763End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated July PCE inflation at 3.7% year-over-year and sticky core readings near 3.3%, alongside firmer labor market data, have narrowed the gap between market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike (47.5%) versus no change (44.5%) at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. Recent FOMC projections under new Chair Kevin Warsh marked up 2026 inflation forecasts and shifted the median policy rate higher, reflecting concerns over supply-driven price pressures persisting into year-end. Traders are weighing these factors against moderating growth signals and the Fed's data-dependent approach, with the September and October meetings serving as key catalysts that could clarify whether incoming releases tip consensus toward tightening or a hold at the 3.5-3.75% target range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions