OpenAI’s GPT-5 series currently trails the HLE frontier, with GPT-5.4 Pro at 58.7% and GPT-5.6 Sol near 49.5% on August 2026 leaderboards, behind Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 (64.5–64.7%) and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 (62.1%). Trader sentiment reflects Anthropic’s sustained edge in reasoning-focused training and scale, plus Meta’s rapid gains, while OpenAI’s iterative GPT-5 updates and agentic scaffolding have lifted scores steadily but not enough to close the gap. Key catalysts through December include any GPT-6 preview, further chain-of-thought or tool-use refinements, and benchmark revisions that could shift verified no-tools results. Market-implied odds favor OpenAI models clearing 50% by year-end but price higher thresholds lower due to the competitive lag and typical model release timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$49,916 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
50%+
85%
55%+
45%
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29%
65%+
9%
70%+
6%
$49,916 Vol.
50%+
$8,984 Vol.
85%
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$19,317 Vol.
45%
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$16,625 Vol.
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$2,918 Vol.
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$2,072 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI’s GPT-5 series currently trails the HLE frontier, with GPT-5.4 Pro at 58.7% and GPT-5.6 Sol near 49.5% on August 2026 leaderboards, behind Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 (64.5–64.7%) and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 (62.1%). Trader sentiment reflects Anthropic’s sustained edge in reasoning-focused training and scale, plus Meta’s rapid gains, while OpenAI’s iterative GPT-5 updates and agentic scaffolding have lifted scores steadily but not enough to close the gap. Key catalysts through December include any GPT-6 preview, further chain-of-thought or tool-use refinements, and benchmark revisions that could shift verified no-tools results. Market-implied odds favor OpenAI models clearing 50% by year-end but price higher thresholds lower due to the competitive lag and typical model release timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ET
Volume
$49,916End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI’s GPT-5 series currently trails the HLE frontier, with GPT-5.4 Pro at 58.7% and GPT-5.6 Sol near 49.5% on August 2026 leaderboards, behind Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 (64.5–64.7%) and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 (62.1%). Trader sentiment reflects Anthropic’s sustained edge in reasoning-focused training and scale, plus Meta’s rapid gains, while OpenAI’s iterative GPT-5 updates and agentic scaffolding have lifted scores steadily but not enough to close the gap. Key catalysts through December include any GPT-6 preview, further chain-of-thought or tool-use refinements, and benchmark revisions that could shift verified no-tools results. Market-implied odds favor OpenAI models clearing 50% by year-end but price higher thresholds lower due to the competitive lag and typical model release timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$49,916End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s GPT-5 series currently trails the HLE frontier, with GPT-5.4 Pro at 58.7% and GPT-5.6 Sol near 49.5% on August 2026 leaderboards, behind Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 (64.5–64.7%) and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 (62.1%). Trader sentiment reflects Anthropic’s sustained edge in reasoning-focused training and scale, plus Meta’s rapid gains, while OpenAI’s iterative GPT-5 updates and agentic scaffolding have lifted scores steadily but not enough to close the gap. Key catalysts through December include any GPT-6 preview, further chain-of-thought or tool-use refinements, and benchmark revisions that could shift verified no-tools results. Market-implied odds favor OpenAI models clearing 50% by year-end but price higher thresholds lower due to the competitive lag and typical model release timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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