Trader consensus favoring zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 (55% implied probability) reflects the historical rarity of such events, which occur only a few times per decade on average, combined with the absence of confirmed large explosive activity through late August. Ongoing Indonesian activity at Semeru and Lewotobi Laki-laki has produced hundreds of smaller eruptions with modest ash plumes under 2 km, while other monitored systems like Kīlauea, Great Sitkin, and Fuego remain at lower VEI levels per USGS and PVMBG reports. A speculative May submarine event drew limited attention but lacks official VEI assignment. With roughly four months remaining and no recent model signals of imminent intensification, the market-implied odds align with climatological baselines and current observational data from global networks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
0 48%
1 28%
2 4.3%
3 1.3%
$1,157,937 Vol.
$1,157,937 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
55%
1
28%
2
4%
3
1%
4
1%
5+
1%
0 48%
1 28%
2 4.3%
3 1.3%
$1,157,937 Vol.
$1,157,937 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$499,293 Vol.
55%
1
$274,276 Vol.
28%
2
$41,482 Vol.
4%
3
$31,868 Vol.
1%
4
$35,308 Vol.
1%
5+
$275,709 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus favoring zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 (55% implied probability) reflects the historical rarity of such events, which occur only a few times per decade on average, combined with the absence of confirmed large explosive activity through late August. Ongoing Indonesian activity at Semeru and Lewotobi Laki-laki has produced hundreds of smaller eruptions with modest ash plumes under 2 km, while other monitored systems like Kīlauea, Great Sitkin, and Fuego remain at lower VEI levels per USGS and PVMBG reports. A speculative May submarine event drew limited attention but lacks official VEI assignment. With roughly four months remaining and no recent model signals of imminent intensification, the market-implied odds align with climatological baselines and current observational data from global networks.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,157,937End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus favoring zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 (55% implied probability) reflects the historical rarity of such events, which occur only a few times per decade on average, combined with the absence of confirmed large explosive activity through late August. Ongoing Indonesian activity at Semeru and Lewotobi Laki-laki has produced hundreds of smaller eruptions with modest ash plumes under 2 km, while other monitored systems like Kīlauea, Great Sitkin, and Fuego remain at lower VEI levels per USGS and PVMBG reports. A speculative May submarine event drew limited attention but lacks official VEI assignment. With roughly four months remaining and no recent model signals of imminent intensification, the market-implied odds align with climatological baselines and current observational data from global networks.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$1,157,937End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favoring zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 (55% implied probability) reflects the historical rarity of such events, which occur only a few times per decade on average, combined with the absence of confirmed large explosive activity through late August. Ongoing Indonesian activity at Semeru and Lewotobi Laki-laki has produced hundreds of smaller eruptions with modest ash plumes under 2 km, while other monitored systems like Kīlauea, Great Sitkin, and Fuego remain at lower VEI levels per USGS and PVMBG reports. A speculative May submarine event drew limited attention but lacks official VEI assignment. With roughly four months remaining and no recent model signals of imminent intensification, the market-implied odds align with climatological baselines and current observational data from global networks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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