Republican House departures for the 2026 cycle have reached 37 members not seeking re-election as of late August, driven by a combination of retirements from public office and bids for Senate or gubernatorial seats. This total aligns with historical patterns for the president's party in midterm years and exceeds recent cycles, reflecting factors such as age-related exits, redistricting effects, institutional frustrations, and opportunities for higher office amid a narrow majority. The market's strong consensus on the 36–39 range reflects the limited remaining time for new announcements before filing deadlines and primaries conclude. Late developments that could shift the count include additional surprise retirements or reversals by undecided members, though such changes have been rare at this stage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Republican House members not running in 2026?
How many Republican House members not running in 2026?
36–39 91.5%
40–43 3.1%
28–31 <1%
<24 <1%
$74,532 Vol.
$74,532 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<24
1%
24–27
<1%
28–31
1%
32–35
<1%
36–39
92%
40–43
3%
44+
<1%
36–39 91.5%
40–43 3.1%
28–31 <1%
<24 <1%
$74,532 Vol.
$74,532 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<24
$6,307 Vol.
1%
24–27
$20,938 Vol.
<1%
28–31
$23,674 Vol.
1%
32–35
$6,463 Vol.
<1%
36–39
$8,795 Vol.
92%
40–43
$4,458 Vol.
3%
44+
$3,898 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Republican House departures for the 2026 cycle have reached 37 members not seeking re-election as of late August, driven by a combination of retirements from public office and bids for Senate or gubernatorial seats. This total aligns with historical patterns for the president's party in midterm years and exceeds recent cycles, reflecting factors such as age-related exits, redistricting effects, institutional frustrations, and opportunities for higher office amid a narrow majority. The market's strong consensus on the 36–39 range reflects the limited remaining time for new announcements before filing deadlines and primaries conclude. Late developments that could shift the count include additional surprise retirements or reversals by undecided members, though such changes have been rare at this stage.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$74,532End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Republican House departures for the 2026 cycle have reached 37 members not seeking re-election as of late August, driven by a combination of retirements from public office and bids for Senate or gubernatorial seats. This total aligns with historical patterns for the president's party in midterm years and exceeds recent cycles, reflecting factors such as age-related exits, redistricting effects, institutional frustrations, and opportunities for higher office amid a narrow majority. The market's strong consensus on the 36–39 range reflects the limited remaining time for new announcements before filing deadlines and primaries conclude. Late developments that could shift the count include additional surprise retirements or reversals by undecided members, though such changes have been rare at this stage.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$74,532End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican House departures for the 2026 cycle have reached 37 members not seeking re-election as of late August, driven by a combination of retirements from public office and bids for Senate or gubernatorial seats. This total aligns with historical patterns for the president's party in midterm years and exceeds recent cycles, reflecting factors such as age-related exits, redistricting effects, institutional frustrations, and opportunities for higher office amid a narrow majority. The market's strong consensus on the 36–39 range reflects the limited remaining time for new announcements before filing deadlines and primaries conclude. Late developments that could shift the count include additional surprise retirements or reversals by undecided members, though such changes have been rare at this stage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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