Republican House incumbents have announced departures at a historically elevated pace ahead of the 2026 midterms, driven by committee leaders and senior members opting to retire from public office or pursue Senate, gubernatorial, and other statewide races. As of late August 2026, tracking shows 37 Republicans among roughly 60 total House members not seeking re-election, placing the count squarely in the 36–39 bracket that commands overwhelming trader consensus. This tally reflects repeated waves of announcements from early 2025 through recent weeks, including several committee chairs stepping aside. Further movement to 40 or above would require multiple additional late decisions, while downward shifts appear improbable given completed filing timelines and the low likelihood of reversals at this stage of the cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Republican House members not running in 2026?
How many Republican House members not running in 2026?
36–39 91.5%
40–43 3.2%
28–31 <1%
<24 <1%
$74,086 Vol.
$74,086 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<24
1%
24–27
<1%
28–31
1%
32–35
<1%
36–39
92%
40–43
3%
44+
<1%
36–39 91.5%
40–43 3.2%
28–31 <1%
<24 <1%
$74,086 Vol.
$74,086 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<24
$6,307 Vol.
1%
24–27
$20,566 Vol.
<1%
28–31
$23,674 Vol.
1%
32–35
$6,463 Vol.
<1%
36–39
$8,795 Vol.
92%
40–43
$4,458 Vol.
3%
44+
$3,823 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Republican House incumbents have announced departures at a historically elevated pace ahead of the 2026 midterms, driven by committee leaders and senior members opting to retire from public office or pursue Senate, gubernatorial, and other statewide races. As of late August 2026, tracking shows 37 Republicans among roughly 60 total House members not seeking re-election, placing the count squarely in the 36–39 bracket that commands overwhelming trader consensus. This tally reflects repeated waves of announcements from early 2025 through recent weeks, including several committee chairs stepping aside. Further movement to 40 or above would require multiple additional late decisions, while downward shifts appear improbable given completed filing timelines and the low likelihood of reversals at this stage of the cycle.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$74,086End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Republican House incumbents have announced departures at a historically elevated pace ahead of the 2026 midterms, driven by committee leaders and senior members opting to retire from public office or pursue Senate, gubernatorial, and other statewide races. As of late August 2026, tracking shows 37 Republicans among roughly 60 total House members not seeking re-election, placing the count squarely in the 36–39 bracket that commands overwhelming trader consensus. This tally reflects repeated waves of announcements from early 2025 through recent weeks, including several committee chairs stepping aside. Further movement to 40 or above would require multiple additional late decisions, while downward shifts appear improbable given completed filing timelines and the low likelihood of reversals at this stage of the cycle.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$74,086End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican House incumbents have announced departures at a historically elevated pace ahead of the 2026 midterms, driven by committee leaders and senior members opting to retire from public office or pursue Senate, gubernatorial, and other statewide races. As of late August 2026, tracking shows 37 Republicans among roughly 60 total House members not seeking re-election, placing the count squarely in the 36–39 bracket that commands overwhelming trader consensus. This tally reflects repeated waves of announcements from early 2025 through recent weeks, including several committee chairs stepping aside. Further movement to 40 or above would require multiple additional late decisions, while downward shifts appear improbable given completed filing timelines and the low likelihood of reversals at this stage of the cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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