**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, driving the strong market consensus at 86.5% for that outcome.** The group includes Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Steve Daines (Montana), Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, pursuing the governorship), and appointee Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma). These decisions, spread across 2025 and early 2026, reflect typical midterm retirement patterns amplified by age, health considerations, and strategic exits ahead of primaries. Two additional Republican incumbents lost renomination in primaries, but the core count of voluntary departures has remained stable since spring. With the November election approaching and no major new announcements in recent weeks, traders see limited scope for the total to shift outside the 5–9 range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7 87%
5 2.1%
9 2.1%
10 2.0%
$105,136 Vol.
$105,136 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<5
2%
5
2%
6
1%
7
87%
8
1%
9
2%
10
2%
11
<1%
12+
1%
7 87%
5 2.1%
9 2.1%
10 2.0%
$105,136 Vol.
$105,136 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<5
$23,750 Vol.
2%
5
$17,889 Vol.
2%
6
$27,352 Vol.
1%
7
$18,307 Vol.
87%
8
$4,648 Vol.
1%
9
$2,314 Vol.
2%
10
$1,951 Vol.
2%
11
$3,756 Vol.
<1%
12+
$5,169 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, driving the strong market consensus at 86.5% for that outcome.** The group includes Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Steve Daines (Montana), Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, pursuing the governorship), and appointee Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma). These decisions, spread across 2025 and early 2026, reflect typical midterm retirement patterns amplified by age, health considerations, and strategic exits ahead of primaries. Two additional Republican incumbents lost renomination in primaries, but the core count of voluntary departures has remained stable since spring. With the November election approaching and no major new announcements in recent weeks, traders see limited scope for the total to shift outside the 5–9 range.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$105,136End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, driving the strong market consensus at 86.5% for that outcome.** The group includes Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Steve Daines (Montana), Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, pursuing the governorship), and appointee Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma). These decisions, spread across 2025 and early 2026, reflect typical midterm retirement patterns amplified by age, health considerations, and strategic exits ahead of primaries. Two additional Republican incumbents lost renomination in primaries, but the core count of voluntary departures has remained stable since spring. With the November election approaching and no major new announcements in recent weeks, traders see limited scope for the total to shift outside the 5–9 range.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$105,136End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, driving the strong market consensus at 86.5% for that outcome.** The group includes Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Steve Daines (Montana), Tommy Tuberville (Alabama, pursuing the governorship), and appointee Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma). These decisions, spread across 2025 and early 2026, reflect typical midterm retirement patterns amplified by age, health considerations, and strategic exits ahead of primaries. Two additional Republican incumbents lost renomination in primaries, but the core count of voluntary departures has remained stable since spring. With the November election approaching and no major new announcements in recent weeks, traders see limited scope for the total to shift outside the 5–9 range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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