Recent Israeli polls ahead of the October 27 Knesset election place Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, in a range of roughly 6–9 seats, aligning with the market’s leading 6.5–7.5% band. This positioning reflects steady support among religious and right-wing voters following the September 9 party-list deadline, amid surplus-vote agreements and competition from Religious Zionism for overlapping constituencies. Recent surveys from outlets including Midgam, Kantar, and Lazar show limited movement for the party, with no major scandals or shifts in turnout expectations altering its trajectory in the final weeks. Traders appear to weigh these polling averages and the party’s independent slate against structural factors like the 3.25% threshold and bloc dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5.5-6.5% 34%
<4.5% 30%
4.5-5.5% 26%
7.5%+ 16%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<4.5%
30%
4.5-5.5%
26%
5.5-6.5%
35%
6.5-7.5%
45%
7.5%+
16%
5.5-6.5% 34%
<4.5% 30%
4.5-5.5% 26%
7.5%+ 16%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<4.5%
$13 Vol.
30%
4.5-5.5%
$13 Vol.
26%
5.5-6.5%
$78 Vol.
35%
6.5-7.5%
$114 Vol.
45%
7.5%+
$282 Vol.
16%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent Israeli polls ahead of the October 27 Knesset election place Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, in a range of roughly 6–9 seats, aligning with the market’s leading 6.5–7.5% band. This positioning reflects steady support among religious and right-wing voters following the September 9 party-list deadline, amid surplus-vote agreements and competition from Religious Zionism for overlapping constituencies. Recent surveys from outlets including Midgam, Kantar, and Lazar show limited movement for the party, with no major scandals or shifts in turnout expectations altering its trajectory in the final weeks. Traders appear to weigh these polling averages and the party’s independent slate against structural factors like the 3.25% threshold and bloc dynamics.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
Volume
$469End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent Israeli polls ahead of the October 27 Knesset election place Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, in a range of roughly 6–9 seats, aligning with the market’s leading 6.5–7.5% band. This positioning reflects steady support among religious and right-wing voters following the September 9 party-list deadline, amid surplus-vote agreements and competition from Religious Zionism for overlapping constituencies. Recent surveys from outlets including Midgam, Kantar, and Lazar show limited movement for the party, with no major scandals or shifts in turnout expectations altering its trajectory in the final weeks. Traders appear to weigh these polling averages and the party’s independent slate against structural factors like the 3.25% threshold and bloc dynamics.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Otzma Yehudit party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Otzma Yehudit's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Otzma Yehudit passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$469End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Israeli polls ahead of the October 27 Knesset election place Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, in a range of roughly 6–9 seats, aligning with the market’s leading 6.5–7.5% band. This positioning reflects steady support among religious and right-wing voters following the September 9 party-list deadline, amid surplus-vote agreements and competition from Religious Zionism for overlapping constituencies. Recent surveys from outlets including Midgam, Kantar, and Lazar show limited movement for the party, with no major scandals or shifts in turnout expectations altering its trajectory in the final weeks. Traders appear to weigh these polling averages and the party’s independent slate against structural factors like the 3.25% threshold and bloc dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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