**No federal law banning sports prediction markets has advanced toward enactment in 2026, supporting the 86% trader consensus against passage.** Bipartisan bills such as the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act (H.R. 9856), introduced in July 2026 by Nevada representatives, remain referred to the House Agriculture Committee with no floor action or votes. Similar proposals targeting sports event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act have stalled without committee advancement. The CFTC continues asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction over CFTC-registered platforms, filing suits against multiple states and issuing a June 2026 proposed rule that generally permits broad sports contracts while flagging narrower integrity concerns. State efforts, including Minnesota’s May 2026 felony ban (enjoined by federal court in July), Utah’s expanded gambling definition, and Illinois licensing requirements, face ongoing litigation and injunctions rather than nationwide effect. With Congress in recess and no scheduled votes before year-end, the absence of legislative momentum or overriding CFTC reversal sustains the current implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLaw banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
16% chance
$19,479 Vol.
$19,479 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
16% chance
$19,479 Vol.
$19,479 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**No federal law banning sports prediction markets has advanced toward enactment in 2026, supporting the 86% trader consensus against passage.** Bipartisan bills such as the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act (H.R. 9856), introduced in July 2026 by Nevada representatives, remain referred to the House Agriculture Committee with no floor action or votes. Similar proposals targeting sports event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act have stalled without committee advancement.
The CFTC continues asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction over CFTC-registered platforms, filing suits against multiple states and issuing a June 2026 proposed rule that generally permits broad sports contracts while flagging narrower integrity concerns. State efforts, including Minnesota’s May 2026 felony ban (enjoined by federal court in July), Utah’s expanded gambling definition, and Illinois licensing requirements, face ongoing litigation and injunctions rather than nationwide effect.
With Congress in recess and no scheduled votes before year-end, the absence of legislative momentum or overriding CFTC reversal sustains the current implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volume
$19,479End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**No federal law banning sports prediction markets has advanced toward enactment in 2026, supporting the 86% trader consensus against passage.** Bipartisan bills such as the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act (H.R. 9856), introduced in July 2026 by Nevada representatives, remain referred to the House Agriculture Committee with no floor action or votes. Similar proposals targeting sports event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act have stalled without committee advancement.
The CFTC continues asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction over CFTC-registered platforms, filing suits against multiple states and issuing a June 2026 proposed rule that generally permits broad sports contracts while flagging narrower integrity concerns. State efforts, including Minnesota’s May 2026 felony ban (enjoined by federal court in July), Utah’s expanded gambling definition, and Illinois licensing requirements, face ongoing litigation and injunctions rather than nationwide effect.
With Congress in recess and no scheduled votes before year-end, the absence of legislative momentum or overriding CFTC reversal sustains the current implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$19,479End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No federal law banning sports prediction markets has advanced toward enactment in 2026, supporting the 86% trader consensus against passage.** Bipartisan bills such as the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act (H.R. 9856), introduced in July 2026 by Nevada representatives, remain referred to the House Agriculture Committee with no floor action or votes. Similar proposals targeting sports event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act have stalled without committee advancement. The CFTC continues asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction over CFTC-registered platforms, filing suits against multiple states and issuing a June 2026 proposed rule that generally permits broad sports contracts while flagging narrower integrity concerns. State efforts, including Minnesota’s May 2026 felony ban (enjoined by federal court in July), Utah’s expanded gambling definition, and Illinois licensing requirements, face ongoing litigation and injunctions rather than nationwide effect. With Congress in recess and no scheduled votes before year-end, the absence of legislative momentum or overriding CFTC reversal sustains the current implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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