Senate Republicans face substantial procedural and political hurdles in advancing a third reconciliation package before the November midterms, despite House passage of a $95 billion budget resolution framework in July that includes defense spending increases, farm aid, and elements of the SAVE America Act. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has prioritized avoiding a government shutdown by the September 30 deadline and has not scheduled a vote on the budget resolution, citing narrow margins, intraparty disagreements over offsets and priorities, and the Byrd Rule constraints on non-budgetary provisions. Following June enactment of the Secure America Act immigration funding measure, GOP senators including Ron Johnson and Thom Tillis have highlighted the difficulty of threading consensus in a closely divided chamber, with many wary of vote-arama risks ahead of elections.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSeptember 30
10%
December 31
48%
$2,551 Vol.
September 30
10%
December 31
48%
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 26, 2026, 3:30 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Senate Republicans face substantial procedural and political hurdles in advancing a third reconciliation package before the November midterms, despite House passage of a $95 billion budget resolution framework in July that includes defense spending increases, farm aid, and elements of the SAVE America Act. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has prioritized avoiding a government shutdown by the September 30 deadline and has not scheduled a vote on the budget resolution, citing narrow margins, intraparty disagreements over offsets and priorities, and the Byrd Rule constraints on non-budgetary provisions. Following June enactment of the Secure America Act immigration funding measure, GOP senators including Ron Johnson and Thom Tillis have highlighted the difficulty of threading consensus in a closely divided chamber, with many wary of vote-arama risks ahead of elections.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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